Will the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate be cut by the January 2027 meeting? [ resolves 2027-01-27 (238D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
kalshi 18 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 0% | 2027-01-27 | 81.0% | — | $416 | A | KXFED-27JAN-T0.00 | ||
| ≥ 0.25% | 2027-01-27 | 80.0% | — | $565 | A | KXFED-27JAN-T0.25 | ||
| ≥ 0.5% | 2027-01-27 | 80.0% | $1 | $720 | A | KXFED-27JAN-T0.50 | ||
| ≥ 0.75% | 2027-01-27 | 86.0% | $1 | $1.3K | A | KXFED-27JAN-T0.75 | ||
| ≥ 1% | 2027-01-27 | 83.0% | $1 | $730 | A | KXFED-27JAN-T1.00 | ||
| ≥ 1.25% | 2027-01-27 | 85.0% | $1 | $1.5K | A | KXFED-27JAN-T1.25 | ||
| ≥ 1.5% | 2027-01-27 | 97.0% | $29 | $1.6K | A | KXFED-27JAN-T1.50 | ||
| ≥ 1.75% | 2027-01-27 | 73.0% | $4 | $309 | A | KXFED-27JAN-T1.75 | ||
| ≥ 2% | 2027-01-27 | 80.0% | $11 | $616 | A | KXFED-27JAN-T2.00 | ||
| ≥ 2.25% | 2027-01-27 | 93.0% | — | $740 | A | KXFED-27JAN-T2.25 | ||
| ≥ 2.5% | 2027-01-27 | 95.0% | — | $770 | A | KXFED-27JAN-T2.50 | ||
| ≥ 2.75% | 2027-01-27 | 70.0% | — | $360 | A | KXFED-27JAN-T2.75 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2027-01-27 | 71.0% | $1 | $3.1K | A | KXFED-27JAN-T3.00 | ||
| ≥ 3.25% | 2027-01-27 | 63.0% | $1 | $6.9K | A | KXFED-27JAN-T3.25 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2027-01-27 | 60.0% | — | $3.3K | A | KXFED-27JAN-T3.50 | ||
| ≥ 3.75% | 2027-01-27 | 28.0% | $6 | $446 | A | KXFED-27JAN-T3.75 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2027-01-27 | 42.0% | — | $1.4K | A | KXFED-27JAN-T4.00 | ||
| ≥ 4.25% | 2027-01-27 | 4.0% | — | $33 | A | KXFED-27JAN-T4.25 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.00% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jan 27, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Board of Governors" ↗ recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfed-27jan/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfed-27jan.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfed-27jan") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5P6C5JFKT9",
"slug": "kxfed-27jan",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate be cut by the January 2027 meeting?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-funds-rate",
"monetary-policy",
"federal-reserve",
"interest-rates",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 18,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 24842,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}