Odds climb toward another Fed hike as FOMC minutes land

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100803",
  "published_at": "2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-5P6C5JFKT9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-27jan",
  "event_question": "Federal funds upper bound following next Fed decision",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices 60% odds the federal funds upper bound exceeds 4.25% after the next decision, with 86% above 4.0%.",
    "Fed minutes citing AI-driven inflation pressure and near-unanimous support for another hike are broadly consistent with this above-4.0% skew.",
    "The Kalshi contract on cuts greater than 25 basis points this year (CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6) remains at 3%, no easing scenario is priced alongside the hike expectation.",
    "The companion near-term Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-6BS28TS762) puts only 18% on above 4.0%, confirming the market sees the terminal hike as a later-meeting event, not imminent."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cryptotimes.io",
          "source_url": "https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/10/08/bitcoin-ethereum-slide-as-fed-minutes-point-to-year-end-rate-hike/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-08T07:48:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed minutes pointed to a likely year-end rate hike driven by persistent inflation and AI investment pressures, triggering a crypto sell-off.",
      "publisher": "cryptotimes.io",
      "published_at": "2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/10/08/bitcoin-ethereum-slide-as-fed-minutes-point-to-year-end-rate-hike/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder; the 4.25% strike at 60% is the sharpest signal that markets are taking the minutes' year-end hike language seriously."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-27jan/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-27JAN-T4.25",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cryptotimes.io: Bitcoin, Ethereum Slide as Fed Minutes Point to Year-End Rate Hike",
      "url": "https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/10/08/bitcoin-ethereum-slide-as-fed-minutes-point-to-year-end-rate-hike/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-08T07:48:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}