Will the June 2026 Federal Reserve meeting result in a rate decision with at least one dissent? [ resolved 2026-06-17 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change AND Dissents be 0 | 2026-06-17 | 100.0% | $238 | $9.2K | A | KXFEDCOMBO-2…0-0 | ||
| No change AND Dissents be >0 | 2026-06-17 | 0.0% | $205 | $4.0K | A | KXFEDCOMBO-2…-T0 | ||
| 25bp cut AND Dissents be 0 | 2026-06-17 | 0.0% | $53 | $37 | A | KXFEDCOMBO-2…C-0 | ||
| 25bp cut AND Dissents be >0 | 2026-06-17 | 0.0% | $67 | $85 | A | KXFEDCOMBO-2…-T0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If ALL of the following occur for Jun 2026: Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Federal Funds Rate Decision uses FEDDECISION, Dissents uses FOMCDISSENTCOUNT. For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
- Bureau of Labor Statistics venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics venue-listed
- Federal Reserve Board of Governors source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be 0 for Jun 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-17 | 100% |
| NO | Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be >0 for Jun 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND Dissents be 0 for Jun 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND Dissents be >0 for Jun 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (4 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Dissent at Warsh debut FOMC anchors at two-thirds odds Kalshi 67%
- Kalshi prediction market prices a 67% chance the Fed holds at 4.25%-4.50% with at least one dissent at the June FOMC.
- Note: the Kalshi dissent contract references a 4.25%-4.50% target range, which conflicts with the Kalshi ladder showing current upper bound at 3.50-3.75%; treat this contract's rate-level framing as potentially misaligned with the live rate level.
- Reuters sourcing that some members may lean hawkish is consistent with elevated dissent odds; the 67% price reflects genuine uncertainty about internal Fed dynamics under Warsh.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics; resolution source appears atypical for a Fed decision outcome, monitor for contract-specific settlement rules.
- Fed hold with at least one dissent at June meeting wavers near two-thirds Kalshi 67%
- Kalshi prices the Fed holding at 4.25-4.50% with at least one dissent at the June meeting at 67%.
- Warsh arriving at a divided Fed with inflation at 4.2% and political pressure for cuts is directly consistent with elevated dissent probability.
- At 67%, the market prices a hold with dissent as more likely than not, but leaves meaningful room for a unanimous hold or a surprise move.
- Resolution is via Bureau of Labor Statistics; note the resolution source appears to be a mismatch with the actual Fed decision, and that edge case could affect settlement.
- Fed hold with dissent at June meeting commands majority pricing Kalshi 67%
- Kalshi prices a Fed hold at 4.25-4.50% with at least one dissent at the June meeting at 67%.
- With inflation at multi-year highs and Warsh signaled as hawkish, a dissent appears consensus-expected even as the hold dominates.
- The Kalshi ladder for the June Fed funds upper bound shows 95% probability above 3.50% but only 36% above 3.75%, anchoring the likely outcome at 3.50-3.75% for a later meeting.
- Resolution is via the Bureau of Labor Statistics entry for the meeting outcome; dissent requires at least one FOMC member to vote against the hold.
- Fed hold with dissent at Warsh first meeting solidifies at 70 percent Kalshi 70%
- Kalshi puts 70% odds on the Fed holding rates at 4.25%-4.50% with at least one dissent at the upcoming June meeting.
- Surging CPI and PPI data are consistent with a hold, but the dissent premium reflects genuine uncertainty over whether Warsh signals a hawkish pivot or patient posture.
- The 70% hold-with-dissent probability implies a meaningful 30% chance of either a cut without dissent, a hike, or a clean unanimous hold, all live scenarios given the energy shock backdrop.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics data combined with the official Fed statement; a dissent requires at least one FOMC voter to register a formal objection in the published minutes.
- Consensus leans toward Fed hold with dissent in June Kalshi 66%
- Kalshi puts 66% odds on the Fed holding rates at 4.25%-4.50% with at least one dissent at the June FOMC meeting.
- Hammack's public hike warning and her April dissent make the dissent component of this contract highly plausible; the hold component aligns with Kalshi rate ladders pricing below 3.75%.
- April CPI at 3.8% and core at 2.8% are the cited inflation triggers; energy costs up 17.9% annually add upward pressure.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics official FOMC statement; contract requires both a hold decision AND a named dissenting vote.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfedcombo-26jun/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfedcombo-26jun |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfedcombo-26jun") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MZGHWX20T0",
"slug": "kxfedcombo-26jun",
"question": "Will the June 2026 Federal Reserve meeting result in a rate decision with at least one dissent?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"federal-reserve",
"interest-rates",
"monetary-policy",
"fomc-decision",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13305,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}