Fed hold with dissent at June meeting commands majority pricing

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061204",
  "published_at": "2026-06-12T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MZGHWX20T0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfedcombo-26jun",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve hold rates at 4.25%-4.50% with at least one dissent at its June 2026 meeting?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a Fed hold at 4.25-4.50% with at least one dissent at the June meeting at 67%.",
    "With inflation at multi-year highs and Warsh signaled as hawkish, a dissent appears consensus-expected even as the hold dominates.",
    "The Kalshi ladder for the June Fed funds upper bound shows 95% probability above 3.50% but only 36% above 3.75%, anchoring the likely outcome at 3.50-3.75% for a later meeting.",
    "Resolution is via the Bureau of Labor Statistics entry for the meeting outcome; dissent requires at least one FOMC member to vote against the hold."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "aa.com.tr",
          "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/features/inflationary-pressures-rise-in-us-as-new-fed-chair-prepares-for-1st-meeting/3964939",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-14T10:47:32+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Rising inflationary pressures ahead of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first policy meeting fueled debate over the rate path.",
      "publisher": "aa.com.tr",
      "published_at": "2026-06-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/features/inflationary-pressures-rise-in-us-as-new-fed-chair-prepares-for-1st-meeting/3964939"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics records; the 67% reflects hawkish dissent risk as near-consensus even without a hike."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfedcombo-26jun/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDCOMBO-26JUN-0-0",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "aa.com.tr: Inflationary pressures rise in US as new Fed chair prepares for 1st me",
      "url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/features/inflationary-pressures-rise-in-us-as-new-fed-chair-prepares-for-1st-meeting/3964939",
      "published_at": "2026-06-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-14T10:47:32+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}