Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in September 2026? [ resolves 2026-09-16 (43D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike rates by 25bps | 2026-09-16 | 50.0% | $32K | $287K | A | KXFEDDECISIO…H25 | ||
| Hike rates by 0bps | 2026-09-16 | 48.0% | $46K | $224K | A | KXFEDDECISIO…-H0 | ||
| Cut rates by 25bps | 2026-09-16 | 2.0% | $704 | $12K | A | KXFEDDECISIO…C25 | ||
| Hike rates by >25bps | 2026-09-16 | 2.0% | $548 | $12K | A | KXFEDDECISIO…H26 | ||
| Cut rates by >25bps | 2026-09-16 | 1.0% | $17 | $2.3K | A | KXFEDDECISIO…C26 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve" sources (1) · single authority
Federal Reserve committed source
recent wire items
- A September Fed hike stays a long shot at 1% 1% · $22K 24h
- Kalshi prices the probability of a Fed rate hike of more than 25bps in September 2026 at just 1%, effectively ruled out.
- $22K in 24h is 33% of all-time, a moderate session that likely reflects traders closing residual long positions.
- Paired with the above-3.50% contract pricing at 98%, the market is fully aligned: rates hold, no hike.
- Resolves YES only if the September 2026 FOMC decision includes a hike exceeding 25 basis points.
- Odds of a Fed hike above 25bps stay near zero on record flow 1% · $34K 24h
- 1% price means the market treats a jumbo-or-larger September hike as a near-impossibility.
- Kalshi records $34K in 24h, a striking 80% of all-time volume, the highest all-time share in this batch.
- Surge likely reflects traders closing residual long positions or arbitraging against the companion 25bps contract (Spike 0).
- Resolves on the September 2026 FOMC decision.
- Fed hike above 25bps in September stays a long shot at 2% 2% · $56K 24h
- 2% price reflects near-universal market consensus that the Fed holds or cuts in September 2026.
- 77% of all-time volume arrived today, suggesting a macro catalyst reignited attention without moving the needle.
- Possible trigger: fresh labor or inflation data that traders checked, and dismissed, as insufficient for a hike.
- Resolves on the FOMC September 2026 rate decision.
- Fed September hike stays a long shot at 28% 28% · $166K 24h
- 28% prices a September hike as an unlikely but non-trivial tail risk.
- $166K hit in 24h, 28% of all-time contract volume, the largest single-day share.
- Fresh macro data or Fed communication likely driving reassessment of the hiking path.
- Resolves on FOMC September 2026 rate decision.
- A 25bps Fed hike in September draws fresh attention at 36% 36% · $87K 24h
- Kalshi prices a 25bps September hike at 36%, a meaningful minority scenario, not dismissed.
- 24h volume of $87K hits exactly 25% of all-time, a clean liquidity milestone for this contract.
- Activity likely mirrors the Spike 1 hold contract, as traders hedge across both outcomes.
- Resolves at the September 2026 Federal Reserve meeting announcement.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfeddecision-26sep/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfeddecision-26sep |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfeddecision-26sep") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-18Z2VTMCX0",
"slug": "kxfeddecision-26sep",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in September 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-decision",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"central-banking",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 537036,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}