A September Fed hike stays a long shot at 1%

Name: A September Fed hike stays a long shot at 1%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-02T12:29:56+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

1% · $22K 24h

record: CMSIG20260902VS06 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-18Z2VTMCX0 | published: 2026-09-02

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices the probability of a Fed rate hike of more than 25bps in September 2026 at just 1%, effectively ruled out.
$22K in 24h is 33% of all-time, a moderate session that likely reflects traders closing residual long positions.
Paired with the above-3.50% contract pricing at 98%, the market is fully aligned: rates hold, no hike.
Resolves YES only if the September 2026 FOMC decision includes a hike exceeding 25 basis points.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity kalshi_vol_24h: $21.9K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxfeddecision-26sep/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-H26

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-vol-21945/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-vol-21945.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-vol-21945")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260902VS06",
  "published_at": "2026-09-02T12:29:56+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-18Z2VTMCX0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfeddecision-26sep",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in September 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the probability of a Fed rate hike of more than 25bps in September 2026 at just 1%, effectively ruled out.",
    "$22K in 24h is 33% of all-time, a moderate session that likely reflects traders closing residual long positions.",
    "Paired with the above-3.50% contract pricing at 98%, the market is fully aligned: rates hold, no hike.",
    "Resolves YES only if the September 2026 FOMC decision includes a hike exceeding 25 basis points."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 21945.25
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfeddecision-26sep/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-H26",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in September 2",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfeddecision-26sep",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-02T12:29:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260902VS06 published 2026-09-02T12:29:56+00:00 signature sha256-b7b26dd3ef2… ← underlying event all signals →