Will xAI release Grok 5 by December 31, 2025? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]
Will xAI release Grok 5 before Oct 1, 2026?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will xAI release Grok 5 before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 87.0% | — | $2.6K | C | KXGROK-GROK5…N01 | ||
| Will xAI release Grok 5 before Oct 1, 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 83.0% | — | $3.2K | C | KXGROK-GROK5…T01 | ||
| Will xAI release Grok 5 before Jul 1, 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | — | $3.6K | C | KXGROK-GROK5…L01 | ||
| Will xAI release Grok 5 before Apr 1, 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $647 | C | KXGROK-GROK5…R01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | uncommitted | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If xAI releases Grok 5 before Apr 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
platform source field
kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
- xAI Grok 5 release before Jul 1 2026: Kalshi 16% vs Polymarket 11%
- Kalshi prices 16%, Polymarket 11%, a 5pp gap with under four weeks to resolution.
- Kalshi is higher; volume only $3,884 vs Polymarket's $50,727, Polymarket ~13x more liquid.
- Kalshi's elevated print likely reflects illiquidity rather than informed conviction; Polymarket's 11% is the more traded signal.
- Resolves on public xAI announcement or verifiable model release before Jul 1, 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgrok-grok5/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgrok-grok5.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgrok-grok5") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-CW5RM996H4",
"slug": "kxgrok-grok5",
"question": "Will xAI release Grok 5 by December 31, 2025?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"grok-5",
"xai-release",
"ai-model-launch",
"2026",
"large-language-model"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10015,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 38,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://openai.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}