Will xAI release Grok 5? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2027-01 ]
Will xAI release Grok 5 before Oct 1, 2026?
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | OpenAI | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If xAI releases Grok 5 before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "OpenAI" sources (1)
- OpenAI venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Will xAI release Grok 5 before Apr 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2027-01-01 | — |
| NO | Will xAI release Grok 5 before Jul 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Grok 5 pre-July release splits sharply across venues Polymarket 6% vs Kalshi 14%
- Kalshi prices at 14%, Polymarket at 6%, an 8pp gap with under three weeks to resolution.
- Kalshi is the higher-conviction desk; Polymarket holds the dominant liquidity at $53,516 cumulative volume vs Kalshi's $3,582.
- Thin Kalshi volume makes the elevated print susceptible to a handful of trades; Polymarket's deeper pool likely reflects broader consensus.
- Resolution mechanic: contract settles on confirmed xAI public release of a model designated Grok 5 before July 1, 2026.
- Grok 5 by June 30 pricing splits across venues Polymarket 11% vs Kalshi 16%
- Kalshi prices 16%, Polymarket 11%, a 5pp gap with under four weeks to resolution.
- Kalshi is higher; volume only $3,884 vs Polymarket's $50,727, Polymarket ~13x more liquid.
- Kalshi's elevated print likely reflects illiquidity rather than informed conviction; Polymarket's 11% is the more traded signal.
- Resolves on public xAI announcement or verifiable model release before Jul 1, 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxgrok-grok5/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxgrok-grok5 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxgrok-grok5") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-CW5RM996H4",
"slug": "kxgrok-grok5",
"question": "Will xAI release Grok 5?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"grok-ai-model",
"xai-releases",
"ai-product-launch",
"2026",
"generative-ai"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 8786,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 39,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_none"
],
"resolution_source": "OpenAI",
"resolution_source_url": "https://openai.com/",
"source_status": "no_source_stated",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "OpenAI",
"url": "https://openai.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}