Grok 5 pre-July release splits sharply across venues

Name: Grok 5 pre-July release splits sharply across venues
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-10T11:37:31+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 6% vs Kalshi 14%

record: CMSIG20260610DV00 | category: cross-venue-divergence | target: CM-EVT-CW5RM996H4 | published: 2026-06-10

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices 14% vs Polymarket 6%, an 8pp gap on the same near-term release claim.
Kalshi is the higher side; Polymarket carries roughly 15x greater cumulative volume.
Thin Kalshi liquidity may permit a stale or noise-driven price; Polymarket's deeper market is likely more informative here.
Resolution hinges on a confirmed xAI public release before July 1, 2026, a hard, verifiable date trigger.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] cross_venue_spread

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $281 kalshi_vol_24h: $0

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.84 / 1.00
prompt_template: cross_venue_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxgrok-grok5/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x0c61adaf2d0c903081573c305892a84c12701330258d912252eef226faa5c50f
venue_b: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXGROK-GROK5-26JUL01

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/xai-grok-5-release-k14-p6/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/xai-grok-5-release-k14-p6.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("xai-grok-5-release-k14-p6")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260610DV00",
  "published_at": "2026-06-10T11:37:31+00:00",
  "detection": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-CW5RM996H4",
  "target_event_slug": "kxgrok-grok5",
  "event_question": "Will xAI release Grok 5 before Jul 1, 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 14% vs Polymarket 6%, an 8pp gap on the same near-term release claim.",
    "Kalshi is the higher side; Polymarket carries roughly 15x greater cumulative volume.",
    "Thin Kalshi liquidity may permit a stale or noise-driven price; Polymarket's deeper market is likely more informative here.",
    "Resolution hinges on a confirmed xAI public release before July 1, 2026, a hard, verifiable date trigger."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-967EBBB3FC); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 281.15999999999997,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 0
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.84,
    "prompt_template": "cross_venue_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxgrok-grok5/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXGROK-GROK5-26JUL01",
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: Will xAI release Grok 5 before Jul 1, 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/xai-grok-5-release-m-2026-06",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-10T11:37:31+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260610DV00 published 2026-06-10T11:37:31+00:00 signature sha256-c20a0828dc1… ← underlying event all signals →