Will average weekly Hormuz traffic reach a specific level in 2026? [ resolves 2027-04-05 (256D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 40 | 2027-04-05 | 57.0% | $570 | $1.6K | A | KXHORMUZAVG-…A40 | ||
| > 50 | 2027-04-05 | 41.0% | $109 | $1.6K | A | KXHORMUZAVG-…A50 | ||
| > 60 | 2027-04-05 | 29.0% | $342 | $2.6K | A | KXHORMUZAVG-…A60 | ||
| > 70 | 2027-04-05 | 14.0% | — | $985 | A | KXHORMUZAVG-…A70 | ||
| > 80 | 2027-04-05 | 7.0% | — | $630 | A | KXHORMUZAVG-…A80 | ||
| > 90 | 2027-04-05 | 7.0% | — | $1.1K | A | KXHORMUZAVG-…A90 | ||
| > 100 | 2027-04-05 | 7.0% | — | $769 | A | KXHORMUZAVG-…100 | ||
| > 110 | 2027-04-05 | 14.0% | — | $1 | A | KXHORMUZAVG-…110 | ||
| > 120 | 2027-04-05 | 10.0% | — | $0 | A | KXHORMUZAVG-…120 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the Statistical Review of World Energy | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the Statistical Review of World Energy" sources (2) · single authority
- the Statistical Review of World Energy venue-listed
- IMF PortWatch source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhormuzavg-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxhormuzavg-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxhormuzavg-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-JR1WTQ5JH0",
"slug": "kxhormuzavg-27jan01",
"question": "Will average weekly Hormuz traffic reach a specific level in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"hormuz-strait",
"shipping-logistics",
"geopolitical-risk",
"middle-east",
"maritime-traffic"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 9352,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "IMF PortWatch",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}