Strait of Hormuz 7-day moving average transit calls, January 2027 [ resolves 2027-04-05 (244D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 40 | 2027-04-05 | 68.0% | — | $3.1K | A | KXHORMUZAVG-…A40 | ||
| > 50 | 2027-04-05 | 48.0% | — | $2.4K | A | KXHORMUZAVG-…A50 | ||
| > 60 | 2027-04-05 | 51.0% | $410 | $5.8K | A | KXHORMUZAVG-…A60 | ||
| > 70 | 2027-04-05 | 24.0% | $241 | $2.1K | A | KXHORMUZAVG-…A70 | ||
| > 80 | 2027-04-05 | 16.0% | $3 | $1.4K | A | KXHORMUZAVG-…A80 | ||
| > 90 | 2027-04-05 | 13.0% | $5 | $2.0K | A | KXHORMUZAVG-…A90 | ||
| > 100 | 2027-04-05 | 2.0% | — | $220 | A | KXHORMUZAVG-…100 | ||
| > 110 | 2027-04-05 | 4.0% | — | $1 | A | KXHORMUZAVG-…110 | ||
| > 120 | 2027-04-05 | 4.0% | — | $1 | A | KXHORMUZAVG-…120 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the Statistical Review of World Energy | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the Statistical Review of World Energy" sources (2) · single authority
recent wire items
- Strait of Hormuz transit traffic stays heavily discounted below 40 calls Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices a 41% chance the 7-day moving average of Hormuz transit calls stays at or below 40; probability rises sharply through lower thresholds, implying severe disruption is already the base case.
- Iran's halt of tanker traffic and flat-out rejection of US negotiations align with a market distribution heavily weighted toward continued low transit activity.
- The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 sits at 44%, suggesting even a year-end recovery is seen as a coin flip.
- Resolution tracks the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz using shipping data.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhormuzavg-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxhormuzavg-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxhormuzavg-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-JR1WTQ5JH0",
"slug": "kxhormuzavg-27jan01",
"question": "Strait of Hormuz 7-day moving average transit calls, January 2027",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"hormuz-strait",
"shipping-logistics",
"geopolitical-risk",
"middle-east",
"maritime-traffic"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 17108,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "IMF PortWatch",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}