Strait of Hormuz transit traffic stays heavily discounted below 40 calls

Name: Strait of Hormuz transit traffic stays heavily discounted below 40 calls
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026081404 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-JR1WTQ5JH0 | published: 2026-08-14

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder prices a 41% chance the 7-day moving average of Hormuz transit calls stays at or below 40; probability rises sharply through lower thresholds, implying severe disruption is already the base case.
Iran's halt of tanker traffic and flat-out rejection of US negotiations align with a market distribution heavily weighted toward continued low transit activity.
The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 sits at 44%, suggesting even a year-end recovery is seen as a coin flip.
Resolution tracks the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz using shipping data.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Iran halted oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and rebuffed US peace overtures, with Trump telling Americans to accept higher gasoline prices.exa_search → Eman Abouhassira · as_of 2026-08-16T08:23:09+00:00
publisher: Eman Abouhassira
published_at: 2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-urges-americans-accept-higher-gas-prices-he-escalates-iran-rhetoric-2026-08-14/

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi ladder and the Polymarket year-end normalization contract at 44% together paint a picture of a market expecting prolonged Hormuz disruption with no clear resolution path priced in.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxhormuzavg-27jan01/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A40

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-7-day-transit-avg-below-40-calls-kalshi-ladder-41-2026-08-14/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hormuz-7-day-transit-avg-below-40-calls-kalshi-ladder-41-2026-08-14.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("hormuz-7-day-transit-avg-below-40-calls-kalshi-ladder-41-2026-08-14")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081404",
  "published_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-JR1WTQ5JH0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxhormuzavg-27jan01",
  "event_question": "7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices a 41% chance the 7-day moving average of Hormuz transit calls stays at or below 40; probability rises sharply through lower thresholds, implying severe disruption is already the base case.",
    "Iran's halt of tanker traffic and flat-out rejection of US negotiations align with a market distribution heavily weighted toward continued low transit activity.",
    "The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 sits at 44%, suggesting even a year-end recovery is seen as a coin flip.",
    "Resolution tracks the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz using shipping data."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Eman Abouhassira",
          "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-urges-americans-accept-higher-gas-prices-he-escalates-iran-rhetoric-2026-08-14/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-16T08:23:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Iran halted oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and rebuffed US peace overtures, with Trump telling Americans to accept higher gasoline prices.",
      "publisher": "Eman Abouhassira",
      "published_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-urges-americans-accept-higher-gas-prices-he-escalates-iran-rhetoric-2026-08-14/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder and the Polymarket year-end normalization contract at 44% together paint a picture of a market expecting prolonged Hormuz disruption with no clear resolution path priced in."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxhormuzavg-27jan01/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A40",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Eman Abouhassira: Iran defiant on strait as Trump tells Americans to accept high gasolin",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-urges-americans-accept-higher-gas-prices-he-escalates-iran-rhetoric-2026-08-14/",
      "published_at": "2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-16T08:23:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026081404 published 2026-08-14T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-5531196971f… ← underlying event all signals →