Transit calls through Strait of Hormuz, week ending August 9, 2026 [ resolves 2026-11-09 (97D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 14 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 15 | 2026-11-09 | 99.0% | — | $199 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T15 | ||
| > 20 | 2026-11-09 | 85.0% | $129 | $320 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T20 | ||
| > 25 | 2026-11-09 | 79.0% | $226 | $329 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T25 | ||
| > 30 | 2026-11-09 | 66.0% | $227 | $402 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T30 | ||
| > 35 | 2026-11-09 | 59.0% | $402 | $1.0K | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T35 | ||
| > 40 | 2026-11-09 | 45.0% | $823 | $975 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T40 | ||
| > 45 | 2026-11-09 | 41.0% | $180 | $243 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T45 | ||
| > 50 | 2026-11-09 | 39.0% | $872 | $1.3K | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T50 | ||
| > 55 | 2026-11-09 | 21.0% | $357 | $777 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T55 | ||
| > 60 | 2026-11-09 | 25.0% | $274 | $386 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T60 | ||
| > 65 | 2026-11-09 | 15.0% | $24 | $249 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T65 | ||
| > 70 | 2026-11-09 | 19.0% | $259 | $281 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T70 | ||
| > 75 | 2026-11-09 | 7.0% | $86 | $127 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T75 | ||
| > 80 | 2026-11-09 | 10.0% | $255 | $404 | A | KXHORMUZWEEK…T80 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | IMF PortWatch | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 15 from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "IMF PortWatch" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- IMF PortWatch source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxhormuzweekly-26aug09/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxhormuzweekly-26aug09 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxhormuzweekly-26aug09") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-L5QXXGC9M4",
"slug": "kxhormuzweekly-26aug09",
"question": "Transit calls through Strait of Hormuz, week ending August 9, 2026",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"strait-of-hormuz",
"shipping-logistics",
"geopolitical-risk",
"middle-east",
"quantitative-metric"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 14,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6965,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 97,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "IMF PortWatch",
"resolution_source_url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "IMF PortWatch",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "IMF PortWatch",
"url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/chokepoint6",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}