Daily Hormuz transit calls priced in the 25-30 range on the ladder

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080806",
  "published_at": "2026-08-08T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-L5QXXGC9M4",
  "target_event_slug": "kxhormuzweekly-26aug09",
  "event_question": "Daily transit calls through Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder puts daily Hormuz transit calls in the 25-30 range by August 31: 61% above 25, 38% above 30.",
    "Iran's new demands for U.S. war-end and financial compensation keep a full reopening uncertain, consistent with the ladder's wide distribution.",
    "Polymarket separately puts 57% odds on Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, implying a resolution timeline beyond August.",
    "Resolves via official transit call data through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Hanna Ziady, Eyad Kourdi, Catherine Nicholls, Julia Benbrook, Sophie Tanno, Issy Ronald, Christian Edwards, Abbas Al Lawati, Nadeen Ebrahim, Brad Lendon, Isaac Yee, Lauren Said-Moorhouse, Mostafa Salem, Sana Noor Haq, Mitchell McCluskey",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/08/world/live-news/iran-war-trump",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-09T08:36:33+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Iran issued new demands, including U.S. war-end and financial compensation, as it neared a Strait of Hormuz deal brokered through Oman.",
      "publisher": "Hanna Ziady, Eyad Kourdi, Catherine Nicholls, Julia Benbrook, Sophie Tanno, Issy Ronald, Christian Edwards, Abbas Al Lawati, Nadeen Ebrahim, Brad Lendon, Isaac Yee, Lauren Said-Moorhouse, Mostafa Salem, Sana Noor Haq, Mitchell McCluskey",
      "published_at": "2026-08-08T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/08/world/live-news/iran-war-trump"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via Hormuz transit data by August 31; Polymarket's December 31 contract at 57% suggests markets see full normalization as a second-half story."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxhormuzweekly-26aug09/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T30",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Hanna Ziady, Eyad Kourdi, Catherine Nicholls, Julia Benbrook, Sophie Tanno, Issy Ronald, Christian Edwards, Abbas Al Lawati, Nadeen Ebrahim, Brad Lendon, Isaac Yee, Lauren Said-Moorhouse, Mostafa Salem, Sana Noor Haq, Mitchell McCluskey: Live updates: US-Iran war news; Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan sign",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/08/world/live-news/iran-war-trump",
      "published_at": "2026-08-08T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-09T08:36:33+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}