Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? [ resolves 2027-10-27 (478D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 18 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avigdor Lieberman | 2027-10-27 | 92.0% | $945 | $1.5K | C | KXISRAELPM-2…LIE | ||
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 2027-10-27 | 40.0% | $40 | $6.8K | C | KXISRAELPM-2…NET | ||
| Naftali Bennett | 2027-10-27 | 30.0% | — | $3.0K | C | KXISRAELPM-2…BEN | ||
| Gadi Eizenkot | 2027-10-27 | 29.0% | $151 | $1.5K | C | KXISRAELPM-2…EIZ | ||
| Gideon Sa'ar | 2027-10-27 | 4.0% | — | $0 | C | KXISRAELPM-2…SAA | ||
| Yair Lapid | 2027-10-27 | 2.0% | — | $22 | C | KXISRAELPM-2…LAP | ||
| Yuli Edelstein | 2027-10-27 | 1.0% | — | $1 | C | KXISRAELPM-2…EDE | ||
| Benny Gantz | 2027-10-27 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXISRAELPM-2…GAN | ||
| Yariv Levin | 2027-10-27 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXISRAELPM-2…LEV | ||
| Yair Golan | 2027-10-27 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXISRAELPM-2…GOL | ||
| Itamar Ben Gvir | 2027-10-27 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXISRAELPM-2…GVI | ||
| Yossi Cohen | 2027-10-27 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXISRAELPM-2…COH | ||
| Israel Katz | 2027-10-27 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXISRAELPM-2…KAT | ||
| Ayelet Shaked | 2027-10-27 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXISRAELPM-2…SHA | ||
| Amir Ohana | 2027-10-27 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXISRAELPM-2…OHA | ||
| Moshe Feiglin | 2027-10-27 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXISRAELPM-2…FEI | ||
| Yoaz Hendel | 2027-10-27 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXISRAELPM-2…HEN | ||
| Nir Barkat | 2027-10-27 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXISRAELPM-2…BAR |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | parliament or legislature of <country> | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Benjamin Netanyahu becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
For the purposes of this contract, these rules will satisfy the payout criterion:
The person must be formally appointed, sworn in, or invested according to the country's constitutional procedures and command the confidence of the parliament/legislature through an investiture vote, formal approval, or constitutional convention.
They must exercise the full powers of the office, not serve in a caretaker or acting capacity from the previous government.
The appointment must stem from the government formation process following the specified election.
Serving as caretaker pending government formation, being designated to form a government but not yet invested, leading the party with most seats without forming government, being named as designate without completing constitutional requirements, or holding the position temporarily during coalition negotiations do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion.
Special situations:
If no government forms by the deadline, all markets resolve to No except "No one" if that option exists.
If new elections are called before government formation, markets resolve immediately.
For rotating arrangements, the first person to meet all criteria resolves to Yes.
If the person leading a party dies before taking office, their market resolves to last fair price and their successor may resolve to Yes.
Markets for persons not explicitly listed resolve to "Other" if that option exists.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "parliament or legislature of <country>" sources (13)
- parliament or legislature of <country> venue-listed
- official government gazette or equivalent official publication of <country> venue-listed
- office of the head of state of <country> venue-listed
- major national news outlets of <country> venue-listed
- Financial Times venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- official government websites of <country> venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- The Guardian venue-listed
- BBC venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxisraelpm-26oct27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxisraelpm-26oct27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxisraelpm-26oct27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XQ3FKH3GZ5",
"slug": "kxisraelpm-26oct27",
"question": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"israeli-politics",
"prime-minister",
"2027-election",
"coalition-formation",
"netanyahu"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 18,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 12810,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "parliament or legislature of " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.parliament.go.ke/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "parliament or legislature of " ,
"url": "https://www.parliament.go.ke/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official government gazette or equivalent official publication of " ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "office of the head of state of " ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "major national news outlets of " ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Financial Times",
"url": "https://ft.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official government websites of " ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Guardian",
"url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC",
"url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}