Netanyahu PM via 2026 election stays a long shot at 26%

Name: Netanyahu PM via 2026 election stays a long shot at 26%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-28T15:35:02+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

26% · $659K 24h

record: CMSIG20261028VS02 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-XQ3FKH3GZ5 | published: 2026-10-28

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices Netanyahu winning PM specifically via the 2026 Israeli election at 26%, a clear underdog read.
24h volume of $659K is 54% of all-time, the majority of this contract's lifetime activity hit in one session.
Surge mirrors the Polymarket Netanyahu spike, suggesting coordinated fresh attention across venues on the same underlying event.
Resolves on Netanyahu being named PM as a direct result of the 2026 election outcome.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity kalshi_vol_24h: $659.3K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxisraelpm-26oct27/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXISRAELPM-26OCT27-BNET

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-benjamin-netanyahu-become-prime-min-vol-659343/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-benjamin-netanyahu-become-prime-min-vol-659343.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-benjamin-netanyahu-become-prime-min-vol-659343")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261028VS02",
  "published_at": "2026-10-28T15:35:02+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-XQ3FKH3GZ5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxisraelpm-26oct27",
  "event_question": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Netanyahu winning PM specifically via the 2026 Israeli election at 26%, a clear underdog read.",
    "24h volume of $659K is 54% of all-time, the majority of this contract's lifetime activity hit in one session.",
    "Surge mirrors the Polymarket Netanyahu spike, suggesting coordinated fresh attention across venues on the same underlying event.",
    "Resolves on Netanyahu being named PM as a direct result of the 2026 election outcome."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 659343.06
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxisraelpm-26oct27/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXISRAELPM-26OCT27-BNET",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Prime Minister of Israel aft",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxisraelpm-26oct27",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-28T15:35:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20261028VS02 published 2026-10-28T15:35:02+00:00 signature sha256-56c80e2a0fa… ← underlying event all signals →