Will Dem Nominee be Graham Platner AND General Election Winner be Democrat for Jan 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Platner AND General Election Winner be Democrat | 2027-01-01 | 61.0% | $84 | $150K | A | KXMESENOUTCO…GPD | ||
| Graham Platner AND General Election Winner be Republican | 2027-01-01 | 40.0% | $115 | $15K | A | KXMESENOUTCO…GPR | ||
| Janet Mills AND General Election Winner be Republican | 2027-01-01 | 0.9% | — | $292 | A | KXMESENOUTCO…JMR | ||
| Janet Mills AND General Election Winner be Democrat | 2027-01-01 | 0.2% | — | $141 | A | KXMESENOUTCO…JMD |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If ALL of the following occur for before Jan 2027: Dem Nominee: Graham Platner, General Election Winner: Democrat, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Dem Nominee (SENATEPARTYNOM), General Election Winner (SENATEPARTY). All conditions must be satisfied before Jan 2027.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
- Bureau of Labor Statistics source of record venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics source of record venue-listed
- Federal Reserve Board of Governors venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Dem Nominee be Janet Mills AND General Election Winner be Democrat for Jan 2027? | kalshi | 2027-01-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Dem Nominee be Janet Mills AND General Election Winner be Republican for Jan 2027? | kalshi | 2027-01-01 | 1% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Platner-plus-Dem-win combo holds at modest discount in Maine Kalshi 64%
- Kalshi prices 64% on Graham Platner winning the Democratic nomination AND Democrats winning the Maine Senate general election, a compound probability.
- News of a 'disastrous candidacy' and Maine Democratic Party declaring war on Platner are in tension with the 64% combined probability still holding.
- The compound nature of the contract means the 64% reflects both nomination likelihood and general election competitiveness; party division could depress both legs.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics per the contract terms, an unusual resolution source for an election outcome; resolution mechanic should be verified for edge cases.
- Platner nominee plus Democratic general win priced as coin-flip 60% · $91K 24h
- 60% on the compound outcome, Platner as Democratic nominee AND general election win, reflects strong but conditional conviction.
- $90.6K in 24h, 35% of all-time, flows directly from Platner dropout contract reshaping the race narrative.
- Apparent tension: 91% on Platner dropout (Spike 0) yet 60% here implies either the dropout resolves the other way or the contract structure differs.
- Contract resolves on Platner securing the Democratic nomination and Democrats winning the general in Maine's Senate race (likely January 2027 resolution).
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmesenoutcome-27jan/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmesenoutcome-27jan |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmesenoutcome-27jan") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2KYR51YTD3",
"slug": "kxmesenoutcome-27jan",
"question": "Will Dem Nominee be Graham Platner AND General Election Winner be Democrat for Jan 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"maine-senate",
"2026-election",
"us-senate",
"exact-outcome",
"electoral-forecast"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 166208,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 81,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}