Platner nominee plus Democratic general win priced as coin-flip

Name: Platner nominee plus Democratic general win priced as coin-flip
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-07T10:52:51+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

60% · $91K 24h

record: CMSIG20260707VS06 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-2KYR51YTD3 | published: 2026-07-07

4-bullet brief | narrative

60% on the compound outcome, Platner as Democratic nominee AND general election win, reflects strong but conditional conviction.
$90.6K in 24h, 35% of all-time, flows directly from Platner dropout contract reshaping the race narrative.
Apparent tension: 91% on Platner dropout (Spike 0) yet 60% here implies either the dropout resolves the other way or the contract structure differs.
Contract resolves on Platner securing the Democratic nomination and Democrats winning the general in Maine's Senate race (likely January 2027 resolution).

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity kalshi_vol_24h: $90.6K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxmesenoutcome-27jan/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMESENOUTCOME-27JAN-GPD

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-dem-nominee-be-graham-platner-and-g-vol-90603/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-dem-nominee-be-graham-platner-and-g-vol-90603.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-dem-nominee-be-graham-platner-and-g-vol-90603")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260707VS06",
  "published_at": "2026-07-07T10:52:51+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2KYR51YTD3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxmesenoutcome-27jan",
  "event_question": "Will Dem Nominee be Graham Platner AND General Election Winner be Democrat for Jan 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "60% on the compound outcome, Platner as Democratic nominee AND general election win, reflects strong but conditional conviction.",
    "$90.6K in 24h, 35% of all-time, flows directly from Platner dropout contract reshaping the race narrative.",
    "Apparent tension: 91% on Platner dropout (Spike 0) yet 60% here implies either the dropout resolves the other way or the contract structure differs.",
    "Contract resolves on Platner securing the Democratic nomination and Democrats winning the general in Maine's Senate race (likely January 2027 resolution)."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 90603.85
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxmesenoutcome-27jan/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMESENOUTCOME-27JAN-GPD",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Dem Nominee be Graham Platner AND General Election",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmesenoutcome-27jan",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-07T10:52:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260707VS06 published 2026-07-07T10:52:51+00:00 signature sha256-775150b6773… ← underlying event all signals →