Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 3rd District House election be at least 38 percentage points? [ resolves 2027-11-03 (456D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 2027-11-03 | 93.0% | — | $4.8K | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P38 | ||
| 41 | 2027-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P41 | ||
| 44 | 2027-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P44 | ||
| 47 | 2027-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P47 | ||
| 50 | 2027-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P50 | ||
| 53 | 2027-11-03 | 45.0% | — | $0 | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P53 | ||
| 56 | 2027-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P56 | ||
| 59 | 2027-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P59 | ||
| 62 | 2027-11-03 | 13.0% | — | $167 | C | KXMIDTERMMOV…P62 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography> | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Oregon's 3rd District by 38 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.
Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed.
If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>" ↗ sources (1)
recent wire items
- Democrats heavily favored in Oregon 3rd District House race Kalshi 93%
- Kalshi prices Democratic victory in Oregon's 3rd District House race at 93%, a heavy favorite reading.
- The PBS poll showing Democrats with a large national lead among independents is consistent with the lopsided Kalshi contract on this safely Democratic seat.
- Companion Kalshi contract on Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats after the midterms sits at 71%, pointing to a split picture: Democrats strong in blue districts, Republicans still favored on governors.
- Resolves via the official election authority responsible for certifying the Oregon 3rd District result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxmidtermmov-or03d/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxmidtermmov-or03d |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxmidtermmov-or03d") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-98TTCLWRD8",
"slug": "kxmidtermmov-or03d",
"question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 3rd District House election be at least 38 percentage points?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-house-elections",
"oregon-politics",
"election-margin",
"2027-elections",
"congressional-races"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5015,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in " ,
"url": "https://www.nass.org/can-I-vote",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}