Democrats heavily favored in Oregon 3rd District House race

Name: Democrats heavily favored in Oregon 3rd District House race
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-23T13:06:58.311Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi 93%

record: CMSIG2026092303 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-98TTCLWRD8 | published: 2026-09-23

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices Democratic victory in Oregon's 3rd District House race at 93%, a heavy favorite reading.
The PBS poll showing Democrats with a large national lead among independents is consistent with the lopsided Kalshi contract on this safely Democratic seat.
Companion Kalshi contract on Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats after the midterms sits at 71%, pointing to a split picture: Democrats strong in blue districts, Republicans still favored on governors.
Resolves via the official election authority responsible for certifying the Oregon 3rd District result.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: A new PBS poll shows Democratic congressional candidates holding a significant lead over Republicans nationally, with independents breaking sharply against President Trump heading into the midterms.exa_search → PBS · as_of 2026-09-24T13:07:56+00:00
publisher: PBS
published_at: 2026-09-23T13:06:58.311Z
source_url: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/democrats-lead-in-new-poll-as-trump-looms-over-midterms

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi's 93% on OR-3 reflects a safe Democratic district; the more contested midterm picture is captured in the 62% Republicans-hold-one-chamber contract (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451).llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxmidtermmov-or03d/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMIDTERMMOV-OR03D-P38

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-or-3-house-seat-kalshi-93-2026-09-23/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/democrats-win-or-3-house-seat-kalshi-93-2026-09-23.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("democrats-win-or-3-house-seat-kalshi-93-2026-09-23")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092303",
  "published_at": "2026-09-23T13:06:58.311Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-98TTCLWRD8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxmidtermmov-or03d",
  "event_question": "Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Oregon's 3rd District House election be at least 38 percentage points?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Democratic victory in Oregon's 3rd District House race at 93%, a heavy favorite reading.",
    "The PBS poll showing Democrats with a large national lead among independents is consistent with the lopsided Kalshi contract on this safely Democratic seat.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract on Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats after the midterms sits at 71%, pointing to a split picture: Democrats strong in blue districts, Republicans still favored on governors.",
    "Resolves via the official election authority responsible for certifying the Oregon 3rd District result."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "PBS",
          "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/democrats-lead-in-new-poll-as-trump-looms-over-midterms",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-24T13:07:56+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A new PBS poll shows Democratic congressional candidates holding a significant lead over Republicans nationally, with independents breaking sharply against President Trump heading into the midterms.",
      "publisher": "PBS",
      "published_at": "2026-09-23T13:06:58.311Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/democrats-lead-in-new-poll-as-trump-looms-over-midterms"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's 93% on OR-3 reflects a safe Democratic district; the more contested midterm picture is captured in the 62% Republicans-hold-one-chamber contract (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451)."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxmidtermmov-or03d/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXMIDTERMMOV-OR03D-P38",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "PBS: Democrats hold midterm lead with independents breaking sharply against",
      "url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/democrats-lead-in-new-poll-as-trump-looms-over-midterms",
      "published_at": "2026-09-23T13:06:58.311Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-24T13:07:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026092303 published 2026-09-23T13:06:58.311Z signature sha256-41cc917199a… ← underlying event all signals →