What will be the highest price reached by the Nasdaq-100 in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12 – 2027-01 ]
Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 31199.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?
kalshi: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 30 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 25599.99 | 2026-12-31 | 75.0% | — | $23K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 25799.99 | 2026-12-31 | 65.0% | — | $7.2K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 25999.99 | 2026-12-31 | 63.0% | — | $7.9K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 26199.99 | 2027-01-08 | 99.5% | — | $40K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 26399.99 | 2027-01-08 | 99.2% | — | $4.6K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 26599.99 | 2027-01-08 | 99.1% | — | $5.9K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 26799.99 | 2027-01-08 | 99.0% | — | $1.8K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 26999.99 | 2027-01-08 | 96.9% | — | $1.2K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 27199.99 | 2027-01-08 | 95.3% | — | $1.1K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 27399.99 | 2027-01-08 | 99.5% | — | $4.9K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 27599.99 | 2027-01-08 | 99.6% | — | $4.2K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 27799.99 | 2027-01-08 | 95.0% | — | $7.1K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 27999.99 | 2027-01-08 | 88.0% | — | $5.6K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 28199.99 | 2027-01-08 | 99.9% | — | $13K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 28399.99 | 2027-01-08 | 99.9% | — | $27K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 28599.99 | 2027-01-08 | 99.9% | — | $12K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 28799.99 | 2027-01-08 | 99.9% | — | $8.3K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 28999.99 | 2027-01-08 | 99.9% | — | $28K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 29499.99 | 2027-01-08 | 99.9% | — | $20K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 29999.99 | 2027-01-08 | 99.8% | — | $149K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 30199.99 | 2027-01-08 | 99.0% | — | $26 | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 30399.99 | 2027-01-08 | 99.0% | — | $1.1K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 30599.99 | 2027-01-08 | 99.0% | — | $66K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 30799.99 | 2027-01-08 | 66.0% | $326 | $13K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 30999.99 | 2027-01-08 | 65.0% | — | $1.3K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 31199.99 | 2027-01-08 | 54.0% | — | $517 | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 31399.99 | 2027-01-08 | 58.0% | $348 | $603 | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 31599.99 | 2027-01-08 | 43.0% | $4 | $233 | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 31799.99 | 2027-01-08 | 43.0% | $134 | $487 | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 | ||
| > 31999.99 | 2027-01-08 | 40.0% | $156 | $11K | B | KXNASDAQ100M….99 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | For example, Google Finance | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Nasdaq 100 index value after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 29999.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after December 31, 2026.
Pursuant to the Kalshi Rulebook, the Exchange has modified the Source Agency and Underlying for indices markets. See the rules for more information.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "For example, Google Finance" ↗ sources (1)
For example, Google Finance venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30599.99 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? | kalshi | 2026-07-09 | 99% |
| YES | Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30399.99 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? | kalshi | 2026-06-03 | 99% |
| YES | Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30199.99 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? | kalshi | 2026-06-02 | 99% |
| YES | Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29999.99 after issuance and before Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? | kalshi | 2026-06-02 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (4 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Nasdaq-100 above 31K by Dec 31 stays a near-certainty 99% · $15K 24h
- Kalshi prices the Nasdaq-100 closing above 30,999.99 on Dec 31, 2026 at 99%, effectively a resolved trade.
- 74% of all-time volume hit in one session, the highest all-time share in this batch, on a near-certain outcome.
- With the index well above the 31K threshold as of today, the volume likely reflects late arbitrage or portfolio hedge settlement.
- Resolves at Nasdaq-100 4pm EST close on December 31, 2026.
- Nasdaq-100 market-implied level holds in the 31400 to 31600 range Kalshi ladder
- The Kalshi ladder prices the Nasdaq-100 market-implied range at approximately 31400 to 31600, with 68% above 31400 but only 44% above 31600.
- Trading volume on this ladder surged roughly 59000 times day-over-day, a sharp signal of fresh positioning amid the jobs and rate-hike uncertainty.
- The current Nasdaq spot level cited in the story excerpt is 27099, well below the ladder's implied range, the ladder likely references a different contract horizon or index definition; traders should verify the exact contract terms.
- The tail is notable: only 19% probability above 32000, suggesting the market caps the near-term upside even as volume floods in.
- Nasdaq-100 above 30K before Dec 31 priced near-certain 99% · $63K 24h
- Kalshi consensus at 99%, market treats NDX breaching 30K by year-end as near-certain.
- $63K in 24h is 62% of all-time volume; contract likely newly issued and filling initial liquidity.
- NDX currently near or above threshold; contract may reflect recent index level confirmation.
- Resolves December 31, 2026; tail risk priced at 1%.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxnasdaq100maxy-26dec31h1600/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxnasdaq100maxy-26dec31h1600 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxnasdaq100maxy-26dec31h1600") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HYFSJ2CNW7",
"slug": "kxnasdaq100maxy-26dec31h1600",
"question": "What will be the highest price reached by the Nasdaq-100 in 2026?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"nasdaq-100",
"stock-index",
"price-prediction",
"us-equities",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 30,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 465572,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_illustrative"
],
"resolution_source": "For example, Google Finance",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "For example, Google Finance",
"url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NDX:INDEXNASDAQ?hl=en",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}