Nasdaq-100 market-implied level holds in the 31400 to 31600 range

Name: Nasdaq-100 market-implied level holds in the 31400 to 31600 range
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-25T15:46:11.621Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026092506 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-HYFSJ2CNW7 | published: 2026-09-25

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Kalshi ladder prices the Nasdaq-100 market-implied range at approximately 31400 to 31600, with 68% above 31400 but only 44% above 31600.
Trading volume on this ladder surged roughly 59000 times day-over-day, a sharp signal of fresh positioning amid the jobs and rate-hike uncertainty.
The current Nasdaq spot level cited in the story excerpt is 27099, well below the ladder's implied range, the ladder likely references a different contract horizon or index definition; traders should verify the exact contract terms.
The tail is notable: only 19% probability above 32000, suggesting the market caps the near-term upside even as volume floods in.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Wall Street week-ahead coverage flags US jobs data and possible Fed rate hike as the key tests for equities and bonds, with the Nasdaq already at 27099.exa_search → By Dow Jones Newswires staff · as_of 2026-09-26T07:47:13+00:00
publisher: By Dow Jones Newswires staff
published_at: 2026-09-25T15:46:11.621Z
source_url: https://www.wsj.com/economy/week-ahead-for-fx-bonds-u-s-jobs-data-in-focus-as-another-fed-rate-hike-looks-possible-8593c44f

[02] pm_response

interp: Ladder contract volume confirmed at 59405x day-over-day; resolution source unspecified, contract terms should be checked before trading.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxnasdaq100maxy-26dec31h1600/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNASDAQ100MAXY-26DEC31H1600-T31599.99

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/nasdaq-100-implied-range-31400-31600-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-25/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/nasdaq-100-implied-range-31400-31600-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-25.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("nasdaq-100-implied-range-31400-31600-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-25")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092506",
  "published_at": "2026-09-25T15:46:11.621Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HYFSJ2CNW7",
  "target_event_slug": "kxnasdaq100maxy-26dec31h1600",
  "event_question": "Nasdaq-100 index level",
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi ladder prices the Nasdaq-100 market-implied range at approximately 31400 to 31600, with 68% above 31400 but only 44% above 31600.",
    "Trading volume on this ladder surged roughly 59000 times day-over-day, a sharp signal of fresh positioning amid the jobs and rate-hike uncertainty.",
    "The current Nasdaq spot level cited in the story excerpt is 27099, well below the ladder's implied range, the ladder likely references a different contract horizon or index definition; traders should verify the exact contract terms.",
    "The tail is notable: only 19% probability above 32000, suggesting the market caps the near-term upside even as volume floods in."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "By Dow Jones Newswires staff",
          "source_url": "https://www.wsj.com/economy/week-ahead-for-fx-bonds-u-s-jobs-data-in-focus-as-another-fed-rate-hike-looks-possible-8593c44f",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-26T07:47:13+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Wall Street week-ahead coverage flags US jobs data and possible Fed rate hike as the key tests for equities and bonds, with the Nasdaq already at 27099.",
      "publisher": "By Dow Jones Newswires staff",
      "published_at": "2026-09-25T15:46:11.621Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.wsj.com/economy/week-ahead-for-fx-bonds-u-s-jobs-data-in-focus-as-another-fed-rate-hike-looks-possible-8593c44f"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder contract volume confirmed at 59405x day-over-day; resolution source unspecified, contract terms should be checked before trading."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxnasdaq100maxy-26dec31h1600/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXNASDAQ100MAXY-26DEC31H1600-T31599.99",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "By Dow Jones Newswires staff: Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. Jobs Data in Focus as Another Fed Rate",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/economy/week-ahead-for-fx-bonds-u-s-jobs-data-in-focus-as-another-fed-rate-hike-looks-possible-8593c44f",
      "published_at": "2026-09-25T15:46:11.621Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-26T07:47:13+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026092506 published 2026-09-25T15:46:11.621Z signature sha256-628e2056a75… ← underlying event all signals →