Nonfarm payroll employment change, June 2026 [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-10 ]
Will above 100000 jobs be added in June 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 20000 | 2026-07-02 | 100.0% | — | $4.6K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 125000 | 2026-07-02 | 0.0% | $6.2K | $7.3K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| -25000 | 2026-10-01 | 98.0% | $3 | $5.6K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 0 | 2026-10-01 | 95.0% | $10 | $4.1K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…-T0 | ||
| > 10000 | 2026-10-01 | 95.0% | — | $4.1K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 30000 | 2026-10-01 | 95.0% | $0 | $3.8K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 40000 | 2026-10-01 | 92.0% | $665 | $4.4K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 50000 | 2026-10-01 | 89.0% | $2.5K | $3.5K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 60000 | 2026-10-01 | 79.0% | — | $571 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 70000 | 2026-10-01 | 80.0% | $132 | $8.6K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 80000 | 2026-10-01 | 79.0% | $474 | $1.9K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 90000 | 2026-10-01 | 75.0% | — | $1.3K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 100000 | 2026-10-01 | 69.0% | $119 | $1.2K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | BLS | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -25000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "BLS" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- BLS venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will above 20000 jobs be added in June 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-02 | 100% |
| NO | Will above 125000 jobs be added in June 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-02 | 0% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Macro desks stack conviction on a 20K-plus June jobs print 94% · $20K 24h
- 94% price reflects strong consensus that June 2026 nonfarm payrolls will clear the 20,000 threshold.
- $19.6K in 24h, 70% of all-time volume, is the dominant single-session flow in this contract's history.
- Surge likely precedes Friday's NFP release; 70% all-time share confirms this is a pre-report positioning rush.
- Resolution on the official BLS June 2026 payrolls release; low bar of 20K adds to high-confidence pricing.
- June payrolls consensus anchors in 100K-125K implied range Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies a June NFP modal range of 100K-125K, pricing 64% above 100K but only 42% above 125K.
- Brusuelas's 180K forecast sits well above the market-implied range, meaning the prediction market is pricing a more modest outcome than this analyst expects.
- A 180K print would resolve above the 125K ladder rung where the market assigns just 42% probability, implying the market is not fully crediting the bullish forecast.
- Resolves via BLS Employment Situation; the June unemployment rate printing at 4.3% (CM-EVT-FJGT56DTV2) is consistent with payrolls in the lower end of the ladder range, not a blowout 180K.
- June payrolls above 125K fractures from base-case pricing Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices 58% above 100K jobs and 37% above 125K, implying the market sees a decent but not blowout June payroll print as the base case.
- The jobs report is not yet released; the market is positioned ahead of the July 3 print with the bulk of probability mass between 60K and 125K.
- The distribution shows 95% above negative 25K, meaning the market assigns near-zero odds to an outright contraction in payrolls.
- Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report; the implied central range of 100K-125K would likely support the Fed's hold posture.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxpayrolls-26jun/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxpayrolls-26jun |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxpayrolls-26jun") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NHWMG744L8",
"slug": "kxpayrolls-26jun",
"question": "Nonfarm payroll employment change, June 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-jobs",
"monthly-employment",
"economic-data",
"labor-market",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 50822,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "BLS",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "BLS",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}