June payrolls above 125K fractures from base-case pricing

Name: June payrolls above 125K fractures from base-case pricing
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-27T03:01:18.953Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026062703 | category: pre-event-pricing | target: CM-EVT-NHWMG744L8 | published: 2026-06-27

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder prices 58% above 100K jobs and 37% above 125K, implying the market sees a decent but not blowout June payroll print as the base case.
The jobs report is not yet released; the market is positioned ahead of the July 3 print with the bulk of probability mass between 60K and 125K.
The distribution shows 95% above negative 25K, meaning the market assigns near-zero odds to an outright contraction in payrolls.
Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report; the implied central range of 100K-125K would likely support the Fed's hold posture.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Kiplinger previews the June 29-July 3 economic data week, with the June jobs report (due July 3) expected to reinforce the Fed's inflation-first stance.exa_search → By Karee Venema last updated 26 June 2026 in News · as_of 2026-06-27T10:02:20+00:00
publisher: By Karee Venema last updated 26 June 2026 in News
published_at: 2026-06-27T03:01:18.953Z
source_url: https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/this-weeks-economic-calendar

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi ladder contract on June 2026 nonfarm payrolls; pre-report positioning clusters between 60K and 125K with a sharp drop-off above that level.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxpayrolls-26jun/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXPAYROLLS-26JUN-T125000

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-2026-payrolls-above-125k-ladder-implied-37-2026-06-27/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-2026-payrolls-above-125k-ladder-implied-37-2026-06-27.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("june-2026-payrolls-above-125k-ladder-implied-37-2026-06-27")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062703",
  "published_at": "2026-06-27T03:01:18.953Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-NHWMG744L8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26jun",
  "event_question": "June 2026 US nonfarm payrolls",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices 58% above 100K jobs and 37% above 125K, implying the market sees a decent but not blowout June payroll print as the base case.",
    "The jobs report is not yet released; the market is positioned ahead of the July 3 print with the bulk of probability mass between 60K and 125K.",
    "The distribution shows 95% above negative 25K, meaning the market assigns near-zero odds to an outright contraction in payrolls.",
    "Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report; the implied central range of 100K-125K would likely support the Fed's hold posture."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "By Karee Venema   \n\n\nlast updated\n26 June 2026\n\n\n\n\n\nin  News",
          "source_url": "https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/this-weeks-economic-calendar",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T10:02:20+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Kiplinger previews the June 29-July 3 economic data week, with the June jobs report (due July 3) expected to reinforce the Fed's inflation-first stance.",
      "publisher": "By Karee Venema   \n\n\nlast updated\n26 June 2026\n\n\n\n\n\nin  News",
      "published_at": "2026-06-27T03:01:18.953Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/this-weeks-economic-calendar"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder contract on June 2026 nonfarm payrolls; pre-report positioning clusters between 60K and 125K with a sharp drop-off above that level."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxpayrolls-26jun/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXPAYROLLS-26JUN-T125000",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "By Karee Venema   \n\n\nlast updated\n26 June 2026\n\n\n\n\n\nin  News: What to Look Out for in Economic Data This Week (June 29-July 3)",
      "url": "https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/this-weeks-economic-calendar",
      "published_at": "2026-06-27T03:01:18.953Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-27T10:02:20+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026062703 published 2026-06-27T03:01:18.953Z signature sha256-4136de22638… ← underlying event all signals →