Will Graham Platner drop out? [ resolved 2026-07-09 ]

Will Graham Platner drop out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 14, 2026?

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 1 market

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
Will Graham Platner drop out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine…	2026-07-09	100.0%		$548	$32K		C	`KXPLATNERDRO…-26`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	Fox News	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 1 market · share this text

If Graham Platner drops out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. "Dropped out" means the candidate announces they are ending, suspending, or withdrawing from their campaign, files official withdrawal paperwork, publicly states they are no longer seeking the office, or endorses another candidate while stating they are no longer running. Suspending a campaign is treated as dropping out unless the candidate explicitly states they remain in the race. Death or incapacitation resolves to No, not Yes. Losing a primary or election, failing to qualify for debates or ballots, or being eliminated through the normal election process does not constitute dropping out. Once someone drops out, the market resolves Yes even if they later re-enter the race.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Fox News"

sources (13)

Fox News venue-listed
MSNBC venue-listed
The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
Semafor venue-listed
ABC venue-listed
CBS venue-listed
The New York Times venue-listed
The Washington Post venue-listed
Axios venue-listed
CNN venue-listed
Reuters venue-listed
the Associated Press venue-listed
Politico venue-listed

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
YES	Will Graham Platner drop out of the 2026 United States Senate election in Maine before Jul 14, 2026?	kalshi	`2026-07-09`	`100%`

Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

2026-07-07T10:52:51+00:00 volume-spike
Traders price Platner exit as near-certain in Maine Senate 91% · $1.9M 24h
- 91% implies capital treats Platner's exit as effectively resolved, not speculative.
- Kalshi sees $1.93M in 24h, 66% of all-time volume, a near-total conviction flush.
- Surge suggests a credible private signal or imminent public announcement circulating.
- Contract resolves on Platner formally withdrawing from the 2026 Maine Senate race.
2026-07-07T10:00:04.000Z momentum-repricing
Graham Platner dropout consensus hardens near full pricing Kalshi 92%
- Kalshi prices a 92% probability that Graham Platner will drop out of the Maine Senate race, resolving via Fox News.
- Multiple news outlets report Democrats have already abandoned Platner following the sexual assault allegation, consistent with the near-certainty the market assigns to his exit.
- The companion Senate majority contract (CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90 on Polymarket) prices Democrats' Senate control chances at only 45%, reflecting how pivotal Maine was to their path.
- Kalshi contract resolves via Fox News reporting of a confirmed Platner withdrawal; the 92% price suggests the market is treating departure as near-certain but not yet officially confirmed.
2026-07-07T00:00:00.000Z momentum-repricing
Platner dropout consensus hardens after assault allegation Kalshi 91%
- Kalshi prediction market prices a 91% probability that Graham Platner drops out of the Maine Democratic Senate race.
- The allegation and rapid endorsement withdrawals are consistent with the near-consensus dropout pricing on Kalshi.
- The Maine Senate seat is considered a must-win for Democrats in the 2026 cycle, making candidate instability a material party-level risk.
- Kalshi resolves via Fox News reporting on Platner's withdrawal; a formal suspension or exit statement is the settlement trigger, not polling or primary results.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxplatnerdropout-26/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxplatnerdropout-26`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxplatnerdropout-26")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5YRQP7DDC2",
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  "question": "Will Graham Platner drop out?",
  "category": "politics",
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  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 32003,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
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      "name": "Semafor",
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    {
      "name": "ABC",
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    {
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      "name": "The New York Times",
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      "name": "Axios",
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    {
      "name": "CNN",
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      "provenance": "platform_api"
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    {
      "name": "Reuters",
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      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →