Graham Platner dropout consensus hardens near full pricing

Name: Graham Platner dropout consensus hardens near full pricing
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-07T10:00:04.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi 92%

record: CMSIG2026070705 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-5YRQP7DDC2 | published: 2026-07-07

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices a 92% probability that Graham Platner will drop out of the Maine Senate race, resolving via Fox News.
Multiple news outlets report Democrats have already abandoned Platner following the sexual assault allegation, consistent with the near-certainty the market assigns to his exit.
The companion Senate majority contract (CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90 on Polymarket) prices Democrats' Senate control chances at only 45%, reflecting how pivotal Maine was to their path.
Kalshi contract resolves via Fox News reporting of a confirmed Platner withdrawal; the 92% price suggests the market is treating departure as near-certain but not yet officially confirmed.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: A sexual assault allegation against Maine Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner has prompted Democrats to abandon him, imperiling the party's narrow path to a Senate majority.exa_search → foxnews.com · as_of 2026-07-08T10:13:38+00:00
publisher: foxnews.com
published_at: 2026-07-07T10:00:04.000Z
source_url: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/four-months-midterms-12-races-determine-senate-majority

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi contract at 92% is tightly aligned with news of Democratic abandonment of the candidate; resolution awaits Fox News confirmation of a formal withdrawal.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxplatnerdropout-26/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/graham-platner-drops-out-kalshi-92-2026-07-07/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/graham-platner-drops-out-kalshi-92-2026-07-07.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("graham-platner-drops-out-kalshi-92-2026-07-07")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070705",
  "published_at": "2026-07-07T10:00:04.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-5YRQP7DDC2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxplatnerdropout-26",
  "event_question": "Will Graham Platner drop out?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a 92% probability that Graham Platner will drop out of the Maine Senate race, resolving via Fox News.",
    "Multiple news outlets report Democrats have already abandoned Platner following the sexual assault allegation, consistent with the near-certainty the market assigns to his exit.",
    "The companion Senate majority contract (CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90 on Polymarket) prices Democrats' Senate control chances at only 45%, reflecting how pivotal Maine was to their path.",
    "Kalshi contract resolves via Fox News reporting of a confirmed Platner withdrawal; the 92% price suggests the market is treating departure as near-certain but not yet officially confirmed."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "foxnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/four-months-midterms-12-races-determine-senate-majority",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-08T10:13:38+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A sexual assault allegation against Maine Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner has prompted Democrats to abandon him, imperiling the party's narrow path to a Senate majority.",
      "publisher": "foxnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-07T10:00:04.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/four-months-midterms-12-races-determine-senate-majority"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 92% is tightly aligned with news of Democratic abandonment of the candidate; resolution awaits Fox News confirmation of a formal withdrawal."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxplatnerdropout-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXPLATNERDROPOUT-26",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "foxnews.com: The 2026 midterm races that could flip Senate control | Fox News",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/politics/four-months-midterms-12-races-determine-senate-majority",
      "published_at": "2026-07-07T10:00:04.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-08T10:13:38+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026070705 published 2026-07-07T10:00:04.000Z signature sha256-bd114ab7f19… ← underlying event all signals →