Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (120D) ]
Will Mitch McConnell resign his office early?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mitch McConnell resign his office early | 2026-11-03 | 11.0% | $117 | $24K | A | KXRETIREMM-26 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Library of Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Mitch McConnell resigns their office, or announces they will resign their office, before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Leaving office due to death will not resolve the market to Yes, and the market will remain open.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress" sources (1) · single authority
- Library of Congress source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
- McConnell Senate resignation before midterms holds as a quarter-odds bet Kalshi 25%
- Kalshi prices 25% on Mitch McConnell resigning his Senate office before the midterms, resolving via Library of Congress.
- McConnell's unexplained absence since June 14 hospitalization and Graham's death simultaneously thin the Senate Republican leadership bench, lending the 25% reading context.
- The 94% Kalshi reading on CM-EVT-RSPZ64CMS2 for Senate Republicans losing primaries in 2026 reflects a separate but related Senate-volatility signal.
- Resolves via Library of Congress confirmation of a formal resignation; absence from public view alone does not trigger resolution.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxretiremm-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxretiremm-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxretiremm-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DF795XDRC0",
"slug": "kxretiremm-26",
"question": "Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-politics",
"senate-leadership",
"mcconnell-resignation",
"2026-midterms",
"political-succession"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 23793,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}