McConnell Senate resignation before midterms holds as a quarter-odds bet

Name: McConnell Senate resignation before midterms holds as a quarter-odds bet
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi 25%

record: CMSIG2026071307 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-DF795XDRC0 | published: 2026-07-13

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices 25% on Mitch McConnell resigning his Senate office before the midterms, resolving via Library of Congress.
McConnell's unexplained absence since June 14 hospitalization and Graham's death simultaneously thin the Senate Republican leadership bench, lending the 25% reading context.
The 94% Kalshi reading on CM-EVT-RSPZ64CMS2 for Senate Republicans losing primaries in 2026 reflects a separate but related Senate-volatility signal.
Resolves via Library of Congress confirmation of a formal resignation; absence from public view alone does not trigger resolution.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: The Senate returned to Washington with an uncertain agenda after Senator Lindsey Graham's sudden death, with Mitch McConnell also absent since his June 14 hospitalization.exa_search → ABC News · as_of 2026-07-13T10:56:18+00:00
publisher: ABC News
published_at: 2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/senate-returns-washington-after-sen-lindsey-grahams-death-134703677

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi at 25% treats McConnell's resignation as a meaningful tail risk given his hospitalization, but well short of a base-case outcome.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxretiremm-26/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXRETIREMM-26

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/mcconnell-resigns-before-midterms-kalshi-25-2026-07-13/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/mcconnell-resigns-before-midterms-kalshi-25-2026-07-13.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("mcconnell-resigns-before-midterms-kalshi-25-2026-07-13")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071307",
  "published_at": "2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-DF795XDRC0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxretiremm-26",
  "event_question": "Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 25% on Mitch McConnell resigning his Senate office before the midterms, resolving via Library of Congress.",
    "McConnell's unexplained absence since June 14 hospitalization and Graham's death simultaneously thin the Senate Republican leadership bench, lending the 25% reading context.",
    "The 94% Kalshi reading on CM-EVT-RSPZ64CMS2 for Senate Republicans losing primaries in 2026 reflects a separate but related Senate-volatility signal.",
    "Resolves via Library of Congress confirmation of a formal resignation; absence from public view alone does not trigger resolution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ABC News",
          "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/senate-returns-washington-after-sen-lindsey-grahams-death-134703677",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-13T10:56:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Senate returned to Washington with an uncertain agenda after Senator Lindsey Graham's sudden death, with Mitch McConnell also absent since his June 14 hospitalization.",
      "publisher": "ABC News",
      "published_at": "2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/senate-returns-washington-after-sen-lindsey-grahams-death-134703677"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 25% treats McConnell's resignation as a meaningful tail risk given his hospitalization, but well short of a base-case outcome."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxretiremm-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXRETIREMM-26",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ABC News: Senate returns to Washington after Sen. Lindsey Graham's death with un",
      "url": "https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/senate-returns-washington-after-sen-lindsey-grahams-death-134703677",
      "published_at": "2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-13T10:56:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026071307 published 2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-e640d679ab4… ← underlying event all signals →