Which sectors will Trump impose tariffs on in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (179D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pharmaceuticals, where the executive action must explicitly reference pharmaceuticals | 2027-01-01 | 95.0% | — | $13K | A | KXTARIFFSECT…HAR | ||
| Wind turbines, where the executive action must explicitly reference wind turbines | 2027-01-01 | 41.0% | — | $4.8K | A | KXTARIFFSECT…IND | ||
| Critical minerals, where the executive action must explicitly reference critical minerals | 2027-01-01 | 31.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXTARIFFSECT…INE | ||
| Canadian aircraft, where the executive action must explicitly reference Canadian aircraft | 2027-01-01 | 17.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXTARIFFSECT…CAN | ||
| Foreign-made films, where the executive action must explicitly reference foreign-made films | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | — | $35 | A | KXTARIFFSECT…ILM |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the White House | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the President of the United States has taken any executive action in 2026 imposing tariffs specifically on Canadian aircraft, where the executive action must explicitly reference Canadian aircraft in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) and set an effective date, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market resolves based on the issuance of an executive action, independent of the effective date or whether the tariffs are subsequently implemented. The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary. Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included. Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify. The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the White House" sources (3) · single authority
- the White House source of record venue-listed
- Federal Register venue-listed
- the President of the United States venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on pharmaceuticals, where the executive action must explicitly reference pharmaceuticals in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026? | kalshi | 2027-01-01 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Tariff sector expansion pricing holds below majority Kalshi 28%
- Kalshi prices 28% on Trump imposing tariffs on additional sectors in 2026, even after a concrete 25% Brazil tariff announcement.
- The Brazil tariff targets specific imports rather than a broad new sector, which may explain why the sector-expansion contract holds below 30%.
- The White House cited unfair trade practices as the trigger, a framework that could apply to other trading partners, though markets do not yet price that extension as likely.
- Kalshi resolves via White House official announcement; the contract language specifies sectors, so the Brazil action's scope relative to sector definitions is the key resolution edge case.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtariffsector-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtariffsector-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtariffsector-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-YH6B0KCSV8",
"slug": "kxtariffsector-27jan01",
"question": "Which sectors will Trump impose tariffs on in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-tariffs",
"trade-policy",
"sector-outcomes",
"2026-economics",
"us-trade"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 19853,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "the White House",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "the White House",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the White House",
"url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Register",
"url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the President of the United States",
"url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}