Broader 2026 tariff expansion holds below 50 percent

Name: Broader 2026 tariff expansion holds below 50 percent
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-22T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi 34%

record: CMSIG2026082204 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-YH6B0KCSV8 | published: 2026-08-22

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Kalshi prediction market puts 34% odds on Trump imposing sector-specific tariffs on additional categories in 2026, resolves via the White House.
The Canada tariff action is concrete and enacted, yet the Kalshi contract for broader sector escalation sits well below 50%, suggesting markets are not pricing a generalized tariff wave.
Canada's announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation beginning September 8 raises the stakes but has not shifted the sub-50% sector-tariff read.
The Polymarket contract on U.S. debt downgrade before 2027 (CM-EVT-PG006HKDD7) sits at just 6%, indicating markets are not linking the trade escalation to a sovereign credit event.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: The United States imposed 50% tariffs on roughly 20 billion dollars worth of Canadian products after last-ditch trade negotiations collapsed.exa_search → apnews.com · as_of 2026-08-24T08:42:17+00:00
publisher: apnews.com
published_at: 2026-08-22T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://apnews.com/article/canada-us-trade-tariffs-trump-857ef76b20a766e370d70176135b678e

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi contract resolves via the White House on whether new sector-specific tariffs are imposed in 2026.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxtariffsector-27jan01/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTARIFFSECTOR-27JAN01-WIND

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-2026-sector-tariffs-kalshi-34-2026-08-22/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-2026-sector-tariffs-kalshi-34-2026-08-22.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("trump-2026-sector-tariffs-kalshi-34-2026-08-22")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082204",
  "published_at": "2026-08-22T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-YH6B0KCSV8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxtariffsector-27jan01",
  "event_question": "Which sectors will Trump impose tariffs on in 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market puts 34% odds on Trump imposing sector-specific tariffs on additional categories in 2026, resolves via the White House.",
    "The Canada tariff action is concrete and enacted, yet the Kalshi contract for broader sector escalation sits well below 50%, suggesting markets are not pricing a generalized tariff wave.",
    "Canada's announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation beginning September 8 raises the stakes but has not shifted the sub-50% sector-tariff read.",
    "The Polymarket contract on U.S. debt downgrade before 2027 (CM-EVT-PG006HKDD7) sits at just 6%, indicating markets are not linking the trade escalation to a sovereign credit event."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/canada-us-trade-tariffs-trump-857ef76b20a766e370d70176135b678e",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-24T08:42:17+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The United States imposed 50% tariffs on roughly 20 billion dollars worth of Canadian products after last-ditch trade negotiations collapsed.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/canada-us-trade-tariffs-trump-857ef76b20a766e370d70176135b678e"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via the White House on whether new sector-specific tariffs are imposed in 2026."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxtariffsector-27jan01/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTARIFFSECTOR-27JAN01-WIND",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: US imposes 50% tariffs on Canadian products | AP News",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/canada-us-trade-tariffs-trump-857ef76b20a766e370d70176135b678e",
      "published_at": "2026-08-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-24T08:42:17+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026082204 published 2026-08-22T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-e04c13b403d… ← underlying event all signals →