Donald Trump approval rating, December 31, 2026 (below threshold) [ resolves 2027-01-07 (156D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 33% | 2027-01-07 | 18.0% | $77 | $8.4K | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-33 | ||
| ≤ 34% | 2027-01-07 | 24.0% | $17 | $6.2K | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-34 | ||
| ≤ 35% | 2027-01-07 | 34.0% | $107 | $15K | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-35 | ||
| ≤ 36% | 2027-01-07 | 48.0% | $705 | $26K | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-36 | ||
| ≤ 37% | 2027-01-07 | 65.0% | $248 | $28K | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-37 | ||
| ≤ 38% | 2027-01-07 | 90.0% | $5.1K | $54K | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-38 | ||
| ≤ 39% | 2027-01-07 | 88.0% | — | $13K | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-39 | ||
| ≤ 40% | 2027-01-07 | 98.8% | — | $15K | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-40 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | <polling organization> | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 38%, then the market resolves to Yes.
In order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "<polling organization>" sources (2) · single authority
recent wire items
- Trump approval below 33 percent stays unlikely near term Kalshi ladder
- The prediction market ladder puts only 13% on Trump approval falling below 33% in the current window, per the distribution provided.
- The Reuters/Ipsos poll hitting exactly 33% places Trump right at the strike threshold, the market is not yet pricing a sustained breach below that level as the base case.
- A companion ladder (CM-EVT-VWW9FTFB33) shows only 10% on approval above 43%, confirming the market frames approval as range-bound in the low-to-mid 30s.
- Resolves via the named approval-rating data source; settlement depends on which poll and date are used, methodology differences between pollsters create resolution edge risk.
- Trump approval odds of dropping below 33 percent build Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices 14% on Trump approval falling below 33%, with 22% below 34% and 32% below 35%, the market sees 33% as a fragile floor.
- Reuters/Ipsos reading of exactly 33% puts the current print right at the threshold the ladder assigns only 14% probability of breaching.
- The upper tail ladder prices only 10% on approval above 43%, confirming markets see no recovery scenario in this polling cycle.
- Polymarket at 5% on Trump ceasing to be president before 2027 shows markets separate approval collapse from removal risk entirely.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumpapprovalbelow-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumpapprovalbelow-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumpapprovalbelow-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0DMSQTKVX3",
"slug": "kxtrumpapprovalbelow-26dec31",
"question": "Donald Trump approval rating, December 31, 2026 (below threshold)",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-approval",
"polling-aggregate",
"2026-2027",
"us-politics",
"presidential-metrics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 166945,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 56,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "" ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "VoteHub",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "" ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "VoteHub",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}