CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,000 EVENTS / ~16,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Donald Trump approval rating, December 31, 2026 (below threshold) [ resolves 2027-01-07 (218D) ]

kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
kalshi 8 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
≤ 33% 2027-01-07 24.0%
$217 $7.9K
C KXTRUMPAPPRO…-33
≤ 34% 2027-01-07 30.0%
$21 $6.4K
C KXTRUMPAPPRO…-34
≤ 35% 2027-01-07 48.0%
$94 $16K
C KXTRUMPAPPRO…-35
≤ 36% 2027-01-07 58.0%
$374 $20K
C KXTRUMPAPPRO…-36
≤ 37% 2027-01-07 70.0%
$447 $14K
C KXTRUMPAPPRO…-37
≤ 38% 2027-01-07 83.0%
$13 $18K
C KXTRUMPAPPRO…-38
≤ 39% 2027-01-07 88.0%
$13K
C KXTRUMPAPPRO…-39
≤ 40% 2027-01-07 98.8%
$15K
C KXTRUMPAPPRO…-40
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff uncommitted not provided Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 8 markets · share this text
If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 40%, then the market resolves to Yes. In order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.
platform source field kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumpapprovalbelow-26dec31/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumpapprovalbelow-26dec31.json
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumpapprovalbelow-26dec31")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-0DMSQTKVX3",
  "slug": "kxtrumpapprovalbelow-26dec31",
  "question": "Donald Trump approval rating, December 31, 2026 (below threshold)",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump-approval",
    "us-politics",
    "polling-metrics",
    "2026",
    "approval-tracking"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 8,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 110881,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 84,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →