Donald Trump approval rating, December 31, 2026 (below threshold) [ resolves 2027-01-07 (185D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 33% | 2027-01-07 | 19.0% | $3 | $6.4K | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-33 | ||
| ≤ 34% | 2027-01-07 | 25.0% | — | $5.5K | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-34 | ||
| ≤ 35% | 2027-01-07 | 45.0% | $197 | $16K | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-35 | ||
| ≤ 36% | 2027-01-07 | 54.0% | $200 | $19K | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-36 | ||
| ≤ 37% | 2027-01-07 | 71.0% | $3 | $14K | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-37 | ||
| ≤ 38% | 2027-01-07 | 78.0% | $179 | $18K | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-38 | ||
| ≤ 39% | 2027-01-07 | 88.0% | — | $13K | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-39 | ||
| ≤ 40% | 2027-01-07 | 98.8% | — | $15K | C | KXTRUMPAPPRO…-40 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | <polling organization> | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 40%, then the market resolves to Yes.
In order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "<polling organization>" sources (2) · single authority
- <polling organization> venue-listed
- VoteHub source of record from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 40% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub? | kalshi | 2027-01-07 | 99% |
| PENDING | Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 39% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub? | kalshi | 2027-01-07 | 88% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumpapprovalbelow-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumpapprovalbelow-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumpapprovalbelow-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0DMSQTKVX3",
"slug": "kxtrumpapprovalbelow-26dec31",
"question": "Donald Trump approval rating, December 31, 2026 (below threshold)",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-approval",
"us-politics",
"polling-metrics",
"2026",
"approval-tracking"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 107416,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "" ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "VoteHub",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "" ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "VoteHub",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}