Trump approval below threshold by year-end stays long odds

Name: Trump approval below threshold by year-end stays long odds
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026100404 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-0DMSQTKVX3 | published: 2026-10-04

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi contract prices only 12% on Trump approval falling below the defined threshold by December 31, 2026.
Latino voter swing news is consistent with sinking approval polls, yet the market gives only modest odds to the below-threshold outcome.
The 12% price implies the market's baseline is that approval stays above threshold even amid the deteriorating political environment.
Companion Kalshi ladder CM-EVT-VWW9FTFB33 shows under 5% on any strike above 43%, together suggesting approval seen stuck in a narrow low band.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: An NBC News poll shows Democrats with a significant lead among Latino voters in 2026, with economic concerns driving swing away from Republicans.exa_search → Ben Kamisar, Bridget Bowman · as_of 2026-10-04T13:39:12+00:00
publisher: Ben Kamisar, Bridget Bowman
published_at: 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/poll-latino-voters-swing-away-trump-republicans-midterm-shift-rcna599894

[02] pm_response

interp: Resolves via polling organization; the 12% price on a below-threshold outcome reflects disagreement on exactly where the floor sits.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxtrumpapprovalbelow-26dec31/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-33

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-approval-dec-31-below-threshold-kalshi-12-2026-10-04/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-approval-dec-31-below-threshold-kalshi-12-2026-10-04.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("trump-approval-dec-31-below-threshold-kalshi-12-2026-10-04")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100404",
  "published_at": "2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-0DMSQTKVX3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxtrumpapprovalbelow-26dec31",
  "event_question": "Donald Trump approval rating, December 31, 2026 (below threshold)",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi contract prices only 12% on Trump approval falling below the defined threshold by December 31, 2026.",
    "Latino voter swing news is consistent with sinking approval polls, yet the market gives only modest odds to the below-threshold outcome.",
    "The 12% price implies the market's baseline is that approval stays above threshold even amid the deteriorating political environment.",
    "Companion Kalshi ladder CM-EVT-VWW9FTFB33 shows under 5% on any strike above 43%, together suggesting approval seen stuck in a narrow low band."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Ben Kamisar, Bridget Bowman",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/poll-latino-voters-swing-away-trump-republicans-midterm-shift-rcna599894",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T13:39:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "An NBC News poll shows Democrats with a significant lead among Latino voters in 2026, with economic concerns driving swing away from Republicans.",
      "publisher": "Ben Kamisar, Bridget Bowman",
      "published_at": "2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/poll-latino-voters-swing-away-trump-republicans-midterm-shift-rcna599894"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Resolves via polling organization; the 12% price on a below-threshold outcome reflects disagreement on exactly where the floor sits."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxtrumpapprovalbelow-26dec31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTRUMPAPPROVALBELOW-26DEC31-33",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Ben Kamisar, Bridget Bowman: Poll: Latino voters swing away from Trump and Republicans",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/poll-latino-voters-swing-away-trump-republicans-midterm-shift-rcna599894",
      "published_at": "2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-04T13:39:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026100404 published 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z signature sha256-dd8a5270f52… ← underlying event all signals →