Will Trump attempt to fire Powell as Federal Reserve Chair or Governor? [ resolves 2026-05 – 2027-01 ]
Will the President try to fire the Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | ABC | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the President of the United States has tried to fire Jerome Powell as Chair or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before May 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
A "try to fire" includes any of the following:
The President signs an executive order, memorandum, or other official document stating termination;
Directs any Cabinet member or senior official to terminate the person;
Publicly states (in a speech, interview, press conference, or verified social media) that he has fired or decided to fire the person;
The White House officially announces termination;
Sends written communication to the person informing them of termination;
Initiates formal legal proceedings for removal
The following do NOT qualify:
Statements that the person "should" resign or be fired;
Expressions of dissatisfaction;
Asking or pressuring for voluntary resignation;
Stating the President is "looking into" whether he can fire the person;
Statements by other officials unless directed by the President;
Unsent letters ordering termination
This market resolves on the President's attempt to fire, not on whether such attempt is legally valid, successful, or results in the person leaving office.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC" sources (23) · single authority
- ABC venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- C-SPAN venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- NBC venue-listed
- official transcripts from Congressional hearings source of record venue-listed
- person in position venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- the Department of Justice venue-listed
- the Federal Register venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
- the Office of Management and Budget venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- the White House venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the President try to fire the Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jun 1, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-01 | 1% |
| NO | Will the President try to fire the Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before May 15, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-05-15 | 1% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (2 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Market absorbs Warsh independence stance, Trump-fires-Powell risk stays low Kalshi 9%
- Kalshi prediction market prices only 9% on Trump attempting to fire Powell as Fed Chair or Governor.
- Warsh's independence language is consistent with the low probability, the market is not pricing a near-term constitutional confrontation at the Fed.
- A companion Kalshi contract puts just 7% on a Fed cut exceeding 25 basis points in a single meeting, suggesting markets also read Warsh's inflation focus as credibly hawkish.
- Resolves via ABC News confirmation of a formal Trump attempt to remove Powell; the legal question of whether such removal is permissible is separate from the trigger event.
- Trump firing Fed Chair Powell consensus holds near zero Kalshi 2%
- Kalshi prediction market prices only 2% odds that Trump will attempt to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell as Chair or Governor.
- The Supreme Court ruling explicitly protecting Fed governors from presidential removal is consistent with the near-zero Kalshi probability on a Powell firing attempt.
- The companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-L2GSTD8DB5) at 99% on presidential firing of FTC commissioners shows the court drew a sharp line at the Fed specifically.
- Resolves via ABC News confirmation of a Trump attempt; the court's carve-out for the Fed makes the resolution bar even less likely to be cleared.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtryfirepowell-26may12/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtryfirepowell-26may12 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtryfirepowell-26may12") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-TMHG8WLK69",
"slug": "kxtryfirepowell-26may12",
"question": "Will Trump attempt to fire Powell as Federal Reserve Chair or Governor?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-fed-chair",
"powell-removal",
"federal-reserve-politics",
"us-executive-power",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11555,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 69,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "ABC",
"resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "official transcripts from Congressional hearings",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "C-SPAN",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official transcripts from Congressional hearings",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "person in position",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://semafor.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Department of Justice",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Federal Register",
"url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Office of Management and Budget",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the White House",
"url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}