Odds on Trump removing Fed Chair Powell remain low at 9 percent

Name: Odds on Trump removing Fed Chair Powell remain low at 9 percent
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi 9%

record: CMSIG2026101308 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-TMHG8WLK69 | published: 2026-10-13

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices a Trump attempt to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at 9%, with trading volume up 118x day over day.
The Fed minutes showing internal divisions on inflation arrive alongside news that Kevin Warsh has already taken over as Fed Chair, making the specific Powell-removal question largely moot going forward.
The 118x volume spike suggests traders are actively reassessing the contract's resolution mechanics now that Warsh leads the Fed.
Resolves via ABC News reporting; if Powell has already been replaced by Warsh, the resolution definition of an 'attempt to remove' Powell becomes the critical interpretive question.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Federal Reserve minutes revealed sharp internal divisions over the inflation outlook, with energy shocks and AI infrastructure spending cited as key upside risks, amid the backdrop of new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's first policy meeting.exa_search → cnnbc.com · as_of 2026-10-13T07:48:09+00:00
publisher: cnnbc.com
published_at: 2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://cnnbc.com/federal-reserve-minutes-reveal-sharp-divisions-over-inflation-outlook

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi's Trump-removes-Powell contract spiked 118x in volume after the Warsh chairmanship confirmation, with the 9% price reflecting residual uncertainty around resolution mechanics.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxtryfirepowell-26may12/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTRYFIREPOWELL-26MAY12-GOV2

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-removes-powell-as-fed-chair-kalshi-9-2026-10-13/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-removes-powell-as-fed-chair-kalshi-9-2026-10-13.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("trump-removes-powell-as-fed-chair-kalshi-9-2026-10-13")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101308",
  "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-TMHG8WLK69",
  "target_event_slug": "kxtryfirepowell-26may12",
  "event_question": "Will Trump attempt to remove Powell as Federal Reserve Chair or Governor?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a Trump attempt to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at 9%, with trading volume up 118x day over day.",
    "The Fed minutes showing internal divisions on inflation arrive alongside news that Kevin Warsh has already taken over as Fed Chair, making the specific Powell-removal question largely moot going forward.",
    "The 118x volume spike suggests traders are actively reassessing the contract's resolution mechanics now that Warsh leads the Fed.",
    "Resolves via ABC News reporting; if Powell has already been replaced by Warsh, the resolution definition of an 'attempt to remove' Powell becomes the critical interpretive question."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cnnbc.com",
          "source_url": "https://cnnbc.com/federal-reserve-minutes-reveal-sharp-divisions-over-inflation-outlook",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-13T07:48:09+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Federal Reserve minutes revealed sharp internal divisions over the inflation outlook, with energy shocks and AI infrastructure spending cited as key upside risks, amid the backdrop of new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's first policy meeting.",
      "publisher": "cnnbc.com",
      "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://cnnbc.com/federal-reserve-minutes-reveal-sharp-divisions-over-inflation-outlook"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's Trump-removes-Powell contract spiked 118x in volume after the Warsh chairmanship confirmation, with the 9% price reflecting residual uncertainty around resolution mechanics."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxtryfirepowell-26may12/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXTRYFIREPOWELL-26MAY12-GOV2",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cnnbc.com: Federal Reserve Minutes Reveal Sharp Divisions Over Inflation Outlook",
      "url": "https://cnnbc.com/federal-reserve-minutes-reveal-sharp-divisions-over-inflation-outlook",
      "published_at": "2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-13T07:48:09+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026101308 published 2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-a9d6ec80e4d… ← underlying event all signals →