Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 23.0% | $759 | $297K | C | 0x0fcfcf…d3dc |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government from rules text a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- Hegseth out as Defense Secretary by December stays near 25 percent Polymarket 25%
- Polymarket prices 25% on Pete Hegseth leaving as Secretary of Defense by December 31, resolving via UMA oracle.
- Driscoll's resignation amid friction with Hegseth is a concrete signal of Pentagon tension, and trading volume on this contract rose 1,799% day over day.
- The surge in volume indicates fresh market attention on the Hegseth exit question following the Driscoll news.
- At 25%, the market does not treat Hegseth's departure as a base case, but the volume spike suggests the Driscoll exit is viewed as a meaningful new data point.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-JWSH7Q94S8",
"slug": "pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31",
"question": "Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"us-politics",
"cabinet-turnover",
"trump-administration",
"2026",
"executive-personnel"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 296930,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 48,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}