Hegseth out by year-end holds near 34%

Name: Hegseth out by year-end holds near 34%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-11-09T12:20:19.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 34%

record: CMSIG2026110905 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-JWSH7Q94S8 | published: 2026-11-09

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket puts 34% odds on Pete Hegseth leaving as Secretary of Defense before December 31, resolving via UMA oracle.
Impeachment articles have been filed and a House vote is imminent, yet the market holds well below 50%, suggesting limited confidence the effort succeeds.
Democrats now hold significant House majorities per news reporting, which should give them procedural leverage; the 34% price may understate near-term event risk.
Resolution via UMA oracle requires confirmation of departure by December 31, 2026; a House impeachment vote alone does not resolve the contract.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: House Republicans filed articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, with a floor vote expected as early as this week.exa_search → 0 NBC News NBC News · as_of 2026-11-10T07:47:48+00:00
publisher: 0 NBC News NBC News
published_at: 2026-11-09T12:20:19.000Z
source_url: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/live-blog/trump-2026-midterm-elections-senate-house-supreme-court-live-updates-rcna608235

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; 34% reflects the market pricing meaningful but sub-even odds despite active impeachment proceedings.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x0fcfcfc35d71424c0693c717d2e3bc9b8992910835d124d80cd2f01498f1d3dc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hegseth-exits-as-defense-sec-by-dec-31-polymarket-34-2026-11-09/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/hegseth-exits-as-defense-sec-by-dec-31-polymarket-34-2026-11-09.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("hegseth-exits-as-defense-sec-by-dec-31-polymarket-34-2026-11-09")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110905",
  "published_at": "2026-11-09T12:20:19.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-JWSH7Q94S8",
  "target_event_slug": "pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts 34% odds on Pete Hegseth leaving as Secretary of Defense before December 31, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "Impeachment articles have been filed and a House vote is imminent, yet the market holds well below 50%, suggesting limited confidence the effort succeeds.",
    "Democrats now hold significant House majorities per news reporting, which should give them procedural leverage; the 34% price may understate near-term event risk.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle requires confirmation of departure by December 31, 2026; a House impeachment vote alone does not resolve the contract."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "0 NBC News NBC News",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/live-blog/trump-2026-midterm-elections-senate-house-supreme-court-live-updates-rcna608235",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-10T07:47:48+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "House Republicans filed articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, with a floor vote expected as early as this week.",
      "publisher": "0 NBC News NBC News",
      "published_at": "2026-11-09T12:20:19.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/live-blog/trump-2026-midterm-elections-senate-house-supreme-court-live-updates-rcna608235"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; 34% reflects the market pricing meaningful but sub-even odds despite active impeachment proceedings."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "0 NBC News NBC News: Trump administration live updates: Congress returns with government fu",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/live-blog/trump-2026-midterm-elections-senate-house-supreme-court-live-updates-rcna608235",
      "published_at": "2026-11-09T12:20:19.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-10T07:47:48+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026110905 published 2026-11-09T12:20:19.000Z signature sha256-46dbbb42ac3… ← underlying event all signals →