Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make a decision in August? [ resolves 2026-08-11 (19D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 50+ bps | 2026-08-11 | 0.1% | $410 | $2.2K | A | 0x1cf362…d685 | ||
| Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps | 2026-08-11 | 0.3% | $435 | $4.0K | A | 0x6fccf1…191a | ||
| No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates | 2026-08-11 | 67.0% | $3.4K | $12K | A | 0x8c39e2…dc37 | ||
| Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps | 2026-08-11 | 24.0% | $1.4K | $12K | A | 0x1522ad…a0cb | ||
| Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps | 2026-08-11 | 0.3% | $400 | $2.0K | A | 0xb3a257…b5be |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 10-11, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/ sources (3) · single authority
- rba.gov.au venue-listed
- Reserve Bank of Australia source of record from rules text · editorial
- rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/ from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-august/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-august |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-august") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-C9F29RSWM7",
"slug": "reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-august",
"question": "Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make a decision in August?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"rba-monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"australian-economy",
"central-bank-decision",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 31502,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Reserve Bank of Australia",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "rba.gov.au",
"url": "https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reserve Bank of Australia",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/rba-board-meetings/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}