RBA August hold near certain as fresh volume piles in at 96%

Name: RBA August hold near certain as fresh volume piles in at 96%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-29T10:36:04+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

96% · $20K 24h

record: CMSIG20260729VS06 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-C9F29RSWM7 | published: 2026-07-29

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices the Reserve Bank of Australia holding rates in August at 96%, near-consensus.
47% of all-time volume arrived in 24h, the contract's single largest session ahead of the meeting.
Recent Australian inflation or jobs data likely confirmed the hold view, drawing late confirmation trades.
Resolves on the RBA August 2026 decision; at 96% the contract is trading like a done deal.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $20.4K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-august/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x8c39e2ee7d85026ab1e23dd0ad927676f4c5b122051effafbe7764f817dbdc37

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/no-change-in-reserve-bank-of-australia-s-vol-20437/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/no-change-in-reserve-bank-of-australia-s-vol-20437.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("no-change-in-reserve-bank-of-australia-s-vol-20437")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260729VS06",
  "published_at": "2026-07-29T10:36:04+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-C9F29RSWM7",
  "target_event_slug": "reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-august",
  "event_question": "Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make a decision in August?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the Reserve Bank of Australia holding rates in August at 96%, near-consensus.",
    "47% of all-time volume arrived in 24h, the contract's single largest session ahead of the meeting.",
    "Recent Australian inflation or jobs data likely confirmed the hold view, drawing late confirmation trades.",
    "Resolves on the RBA August 2026 decision; at 96% the contract is trading like a done deal."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 20437.010612
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-august/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make a decision in A",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-august",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-29T10:36:04+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260729VS06 published 2026-07-29T10:36:04+00:00 signature sha256-09357be2c13… ← underlying event all signals →