Will SBF be released from custody by 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
SBF released from custody in 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBF released from custody in 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 5.9% | $3.4K | $418K | C | 0x5f18a2…f85e |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from government authorities or corrections departments from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- SBF release from custody by year-end wavers near floor pricing Polymarket 5%
- Polymarket prices SBF's release from custody by end of 2026 at 5%, near the floor even before the appeals loss.
- The failed appeal removes the primary legal pathway to release, making the 5% consistent with only residual pardon or extraordinary relief scenarios.
- The companion Trump pardon by July 31 contract on Polymarket sits at 3%, suggesting markets see presidential intervention as the main remaining release mechanism.
- Resolution is via UMA oracle; release by any mechanism, including pardon, commutation, or bond, would likely resolve the contract.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/sbf-released-from-custody-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/sbf-released-from-custody-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("sbf-released-from-custody-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-TYKMHKW302",
"slug": "sbf-released-from-custody-in-2026",
"question": "Will SBF be released from custody by 2026?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"sbf",
"criminal-justice",
"crypto",
"2026",
"appeal-or-pardon"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 418308,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from government authorities or corrections departments",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}