SBF release from custody by year-end wavers near floor pricing

Name: SBF release from custody by year-end wavers near floor pricing
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-12T14:13:40.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 5%

record: CMSIG2026061208 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-TYKMHKW302 | published: 2026-06-12

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices SBF's release from custody by end of 2026 at 5%, near the floor even before the appeals loss.
The failed appeal removes the primary legal pathway to release, making the 5% consistent with only residual pardon or extraordinary relief scenarios.
The companion Trump pardon by July 31 contract on Polymarket sits at 3%, suggesting markets see presidential intervention as the main remaining release mechanism.
Resolution is via UMA oracle; release by any mechanism, including pardon, commutation, or bond, would likely resolve the contract.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Sam Bankman-Fried lost his appeal of criminal fraud and conspiracy convictions at the appellate court.exa_search → coindesk.com · as_of 2026-06-15T13:51:44+00:00
publisher: coindesk.com
published_at: 2026-06-12T14:13:40.000Z
source_url: https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/06/12/ftx-s-sam-bankman-fried-loses-appeal-of-criminal-conviction-on-fraud-conspiracy-charges

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket at 5% was already pricing near-zero before the appeal loss; the ruling closes the legal route and leaves only executive clemency as a residual path.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/sbf-released-from-custody-in-2026/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5f18a2399d214215045b9e9e9ae2b565c00dd6313a2b853999aaad2dc9fbf85e

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sbf-released-from-custody-by-end-2026-polymarket-5-2026-06-12/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/sbf-released-from-custody-by-end-2026-polymarket-5-2026-06-12.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("sbf-released-from-custody-by-end-2026-polymarket-5-2026-06-12")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061208",
  "published_at": "2026-06-12T14:13:40.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-TYKMHKW302",
  "target_event_slug": "sbf-released-from-custody-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried be released from custody by the end of 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices SBF's release from custody by end of 2026 at 5%, near the floor even before the appeals loss.",
    "The failed appeal removes the primary legal pathway to release, making the 5% consistent with only residual pardon or extraordinary relief scenarios.",
    "The companion Trump pardon by July 31 contract on Polymarket sits at 3%, suggesting markets see presidential intervention as the main remaining release mechanism.",
    "Resolution is via UMA oracle; release by any mechanism, including pardon, commutation, or bond, would likely resolve the contract."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "coindesk.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/06/12/ftx-s-sam-bankman-fried-loses-appeal-of-criminal-conviction-on-fraud-conspiracy-charges",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-15T13:51:44+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Sam Bankman-Fried lost his appeal of criminal fraud and conspiracy convictions at the appellate court.",
      "publisher": "coindesk.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-12T14:13:40.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/06/12/ftx-s-sam-bankman-fried-loses-appeal-of-criminal-conviction-on-fraud-conspiracy-charges"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 5% was already pricing near-zero before the appeal loss; the ruling closes the legal route and leaves only executive clemency as a residual path."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/sbf-released-from-custody-in-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "coindesk.com: FTX's Sam Bankman-Fried loses appeal of criminal conviction on fraud,",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/06/12/ftx-s-sam-bankman-fried-loses-appeal-of-criminal-conviction-on-fraud-conspiracy-charges",
      "published_at": "2026-06-12T14:13:40.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-15T13:51:44+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026061208 published 2026-06-12T14:13:40.000Z signature sha256-02944091adc… ← underlying event all signals →