Will the Supreme Court of the United States strike down Trump's Birthright Citizenship Executive Order? [ resolves 2026-08-31 (56D) ]
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO | 2026-08-31 | 100.0% | $25 | $137K | C | 0x12609f…7914 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The Supreme Court is hearing arguments on the merits of Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/protecting-the-meaning-and-value-of-american-citizenship/) which directed that children born in the United States would not automatically receive U.S. citizenship if their parents were in the country unlawfully or on certain temporary visas.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States rules that Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” may not be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying ruling must clearly and finally rule that the order, in whole, is unconstitutional or cannot lawfully take effect, or that the order cannot be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States.
Procedural rulings that do not clearly resolve whether the order may lawfully be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case clearly and finally permits the order to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Executive Order is withdrawn prior to any qualifying Supreme Court ruling on the order, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/protecting-the-meaning-and-value-of-american-citizenship/ sources (2)
- whitehouse.gov venue-listed
- Supreme Court of the United States from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? | polymarket | 2026-08-31 | 100% |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (1 resolved market). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- SCOTUS Birthright Citizenship EO strike-down nears full pricing Polymarket 94%
- Polymarket prices SCOTUS striking down Trump's birthright citizenship executive order at 94%, near certainty.
- Companion Kalshi contract on the order coming into effect by December 31 sits at just 7%, consistent with a near-certain strike-down read.
- The 94% and 7% reads together imply markets see essentially no path to the order surviving, even with delayed implementation.
- Resolves via whitehouse.gov; the question turns on whether the EO is formally implemented, not just left in legal limbo.
- SCOTUS striking birthright citizenship order solidifies near certainty Polymarket 94%
- Polymarket prices the Supreme Court striking down Trump's birthright citizenship executive order at 94%, resolving via whitehouse.gov.
- Pre-ruling coverage noting broad legal consensus against the order aligns with the market's near-certain pricing against it.
- A companion Kalshi contract prices the order coming into effect by December 31 at just 7%, consistent with the 94% strike-down probability on Polymarket.
- Polymarket's FTC commissioner firing case resolves at 95% in Trump's favor, highlighting that the market differentiates sharply between executive-power wins and constitutional overreach.
- SCOTUS birthright citizenship order strike-down nears full pricing Polymarket 94%
- Polymarket prices SCOTUS striking down the birthright citizenship executive order at 94%, with trading volume up 3,642% day over day.
- The Supreme Court ruling is imminent; the surge in volume signals fresh capital entering the contract as the decision approaches.
- The companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-JZ03HX93V0) prices the executive order actually coming into effect at only 6%, directly consistent with the 94% strike-down read.
- Resolves via whitehouse.gov; a ruling that blocks the order from taking effect would settle the Polymarket contract YES.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/scotus-strikes-down-trumps-birthright-citizenship-eo/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/scotus-strikes-down-trumps-birthright-citizenship-eo |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("scotus-strikes-down-trumps-birthright-citizenship-eo") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4HHYC680N8",
"slug": "scotus-strikes-down-trumps-birthright-citizenship-eo",
"question": "Will the Supreme Court of the United States strike down Trump's Birthright Citizenship Executive Order?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump",
"scotus",
"birthright-citizenship",
"constitutional-law",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 136746,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 55,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/protecting-the-meaning-and-value-of-american-citizenship/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "whitehouse.gov",
"url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/protecting-the-meaning-and-value-of-american-citizenship/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Supreme Court of the United States",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}