SCOTUS Birthright Citizenship EO strike-down nears full pricing

Name: SCOTUS Birthright Citizenship EO strike-down nears full pricing
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-28T10:02:35.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 94%

record: CMSIG2026062807 | category: pre-event-pricing | target: CM-EVT-4HHYC680N8 | published: 2026-06-28

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices SCOTUS striking down Trump's birthright citizenship executive order at 94%, near certainty.
Companion Kalshi contract on the order coming into effect by December 31 sits at just 7%, consistent with a near-certain strike-down read.
The 94% and 7% reads together imply markets see essentially no path to the order surviving, even with delayed implementation.
Resolves via whitehouse.gov; the question turns on whether the EO is formally implemented, not just left in legal limbo.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: The Supreme Court is expected to rule imminently on Trump's birthright citizenship executive order, one of the most anticipated cases of the term.exa_search → Thomson Reuters · as_of 2026-06-29T12:28:56+00:00
publisher: Thomson Reuters
published_at: 2026-06-28T10:02:35.000Z
source_url: https://95kqds.com/2026/06/28/as-supreme-courts-term-nears-its-end-three-major-trump-rulings-due/

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket's 94% strike-down and Kalshi's 7% implementation rate are tightly coherent, reflecting a strong cross-venue consensus.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/scotus-strikes-down-trumps-birthright-citizenship-eo/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x12609f33bc603cb234db2af1d502d143587b697bdc479ddb9344401dbf987914

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/scotus-strikes-trump-birthright-citizenship-eo-polymarket-94-2026-06-28/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/scotus-strikes-trump-birthright-citizenship-eo-polymarket-94-2026-06-28.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("scotus-strikes-trump-birthright-citizenship-eo-polymarket-94-2026-06-28")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062807",
  "published_at": "2026-06-28T10:02:35.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4HHYC680N8",
  "target_event_slug": "scotus-strikes-down-trumps-birthright-citizenship-eo",
  "event_question": "Will SCOTUS strike down Trump's Birthright Citizenship Executive Order?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices SCOTUS striking down Trump's birthright citizenship executive order at 94%, near certainty.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract on the order coming into effect by December 31 sits at just 7%, consistent with a near-certain strike-down read.",
    "The 94% and 7% reads together imply markets see essentially no path to the order surviving, even with delayed implementation.",
    "Resolves via whitehouse.gov; the question turns on whether the EO is formally implemented, not just left in legal limbo."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Thomson Reuters",
          "source_url": "https://95kqds.com/2026/06/28/as-supreme-courts-term-nears-its-end-three-major-trump-rulings-due/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T12:28:56+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The Supreme Court is expected to rule imminently on Trump's birthright citizenship executive order, one of the most anticipated cases of the term.",
      "publisher": "Thomson Reuters",
      "published_at": "2026-06-28T10:02:35.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://95kqds.com/2026/06/28/as-supreme-courts-term-nears-its-end-three-major-trump-rulings-due/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 94% strike-down and Kalshi's 7% implementation rate are tightly coherent, reflecting a strong cross-venue consensus."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/scotus-strikes-down-trumps-birthright-citizenship-eo/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Thomson Reuters: As Supreme Court’s term nears its end, three major Trump rulings due |",
      "url": "https://95kqds.com/2026/06/28/as-supreme-courts-term-nears-its-end-three-major-trump-rulings-due/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-28T10:02:35.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T12:28:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026062807 published 2026-06-28T10:02:35.000Z signature sha256-32883c19f77… ← underlying event all signals →