Cryptocurrency hack total value, 2026 [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $800,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 100.0% | — | $56K | C | 0x74b5ba…b6f2 | ||
| ≥ $1,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 100.0% | — | $12K | C | 0x299d3f…fe60 | ||
| ≥ $1,200,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 88.0% | — | $279 | C | 0x06530a…cc35 | ||
| ≥ $1,500,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 55.0% | — | $2.8K | C | 0xf8303a…1f77 | ||
| ≥ $2,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 100.0% | — | $4 | C | 0x41a7dc…60b4 | ||
| ≥ $2,500,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 100.0% | — | $218 | C | 0x866037…7393 | ||
| ≥ $3,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 100.0% | — | $240 | C | 0x808401…c257 | ||
| ≥ $3,500,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | — | $396 | C | 0xe8ef19…e872 | ||
| ≥ $4,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $985 | C | 0x78601f…8df0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total crypto hack value in 2026 exceeds the amount specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the hacks page available at: https://defillama.com/hacks
The total value will be calculated as the sum of all “Amount lost” entries for incidents dated in 2026.
If the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used.
If the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://defillama.com/hacks sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Over $2.5B crypto hack value in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-10-30 | 100% |
| YES | Over $3B crypto hack value in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-10-30 | 100% |
| YES | Over $2B crypto hack value in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-09-25 | 100% |
| YES | Over $1B crypto hack value in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-07-16 | 100% |
| YES | Over $800M crypto hack value in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-05-01 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (5 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Crypto hack total for 2026 priced between $2.5B and $3B Polymarket ladder
- The ladder prices 79% odds that 2026 crypto hack value exceeds $2.5B, but only 38% above $3B, implying a market-consensus range of $2.5B-$3B.
- The Bitget hack adds roughly $352M to the 2026 running total; trading volume on this ladder surged 72x day over day, reflecting direct market reaction to the news.
- The 97% probability above $2B confirms the $2B threshold is already treated as resolved, with the debate now centering on whether the year crosses $3B.
- Resolves on total verified 2026 crypto hack value; North Korean attribution, if confirmed, would not change resolution but underscores systemic risk driving the elevated range.
- Annual crypto hack losses seen settling between $2.5B and $3B Polymarket ladder
- The Polymarket ladder prices the 2026 total crypto hack value in the $2.5B-$3.0B range, with 79% above $2.5B but only 29% above $3.0B.
- The Bitget $352 million hack attributed to North Korea adds a large incremental data point and is consistent with the market's modal range, trading volume on this ladder rose 7,097% day over day.
- The 97% probability above $2.0B confirms 2026 is already tracking as a record-level hack year; the tail risk of exceeding $3.5B sits at 24%.
- Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the aggregation methodology for counting hacks, whether the Bitget loss is included at the full alleged amount or a recovered/adjusted figure, is the key settlement edge.
- Total 2026 crypto hack value above $2B stays heavily favored Polymarket ladder
- Prediction market ladder prices 89% odds that total 2026 crypto hack value exceeds $2 billion, with only 27% above $2.5 billion.
- The $405 million Liquid Network exploit, net of the $270 million returned, adds materially to the 2026 running total and is consistent with the above-$2B consensus.
- The sharp drop from 89% at $2B to 27% at $2.5B and just 5% at $3B reveals the market does not expect a single catastrophic event to push totals far above the threshold.
- Resolution tracks cumulative reported crypto hack losses for calendar year 2026; partial recoveries like the Liquid white-hat return complicate gross versus net accounting.
- Total 2026 crypto hack value above $2 billion holds favored Polymarket ladder
- Prediction market ladder prices cumulative 2026 crypto hack value above $2 billion at 89%, with volume surging 68.9x day over day.
- The $320-405 million Liquid Network exploit adds to an already elevated 2026 hack tally; the volume surge signals this event is driving fresh contract activity.
- The ladder drops sharply at $2.5 billion (27%) and $3 billion (5%), implying markets see the current incident as pushing past the $2B threshold but not dramatically beyond.
- The Polymarket contract on a record crypto liquidation in 2026 (CM-EVT-V55KP87122) sits at only 10%, suggesting the Liquid exploit is seen as damaging but not the largest single event on record.
- Total 2026 crypto hack value seen between $2B and $2.5B Polymarket ladder
- Ladder prices total 2026 crypto hack value at 89% above $2.0B but only 27% above $2.5B, implying the market-implied range is $2.0-2.5B.
- The Liquid Network incident alone, at $320-405 million, is a material addition to the 2026 running total and is consistent with the above-$2.0B pricing.
- The sharp drop from 89% to 27% between the $2.0B and $2.5B strikes shows the market does not expect additional large hacks to push the total dramatically higher this year.
- Resolution depends on aggregated hack-value tallies across the full calendar year 2026; the Coldcard third-wave attacker (Story 34) is a separate incident adding further to the running total.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/total-crypto-hack-value-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/total-crypto-hack-value-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("total-crypto-hack-value-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-88PZ3D88F1",
"slug": "total-crypto-hack-value-in-2026",
"question": "Cryptocurrency hack total value, 2026",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"security-breaches",
"2026-events",
"quantitative-threshold",
"hacks-exploits",
"digital-assets"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 72342,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 44,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://defillama.com/hacks",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "defillama.com",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "defillama.com",
"url": "https://defillama.com/hacks",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "DefiLlama",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}