Total 2026 crypto hack value seen between $2B and $2.5B

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090708",
  "published_at": "2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-88PZ3D88F1",
  "target_event_slug": "total-crypto-hack-value-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Total 2026 crypto hack value (USD)",
  "bullets": [
    "Ladder prices total 2026 crypto hack value at 89% above $2.0B but only 27% above $2.5B, implying the market-implied range is $2.0-2.5B.",
    "The Liquid Network incident alone, at $320-405 million, is a material addition to the 2026 running total and is consistent with the above-$2.0B pricing.",
    "The sharp drop from 89% to 27% between the $2.0B and $2.5B strikes shows the market does not expect additional large hacks to push the total dramatically higher this year.",
    "Resolution depends on aggregated hack-value tallies across the full calendar year 2026; the Coldcard third-wave attacker (Story 34) is a separate incident adding further to the running total."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "straitstimes.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/business/bitcoin-network-says-405-million-stolen-in-latest-crypto-hack",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-07T13:54:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "A hack on Liquid Network, a Bitcoin-linked sidechain, resulted in approximately $320-405 million in BTC withdrawn, adding to a string of major 2026 crypto security incidents.",
      "publisher": "straitstimes.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/business/bitcoin-network-says-405-million-stolen-in-latest-crypto-hack"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "This ladder covers cumulative 2026 hack value; the Liquid Network incident and Coldcard attacks are among the inputs that will determine resolution against the $2.0B and $2.5B strike levels."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/total-crypto-hack-value-in-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "straitstimes.com: Bitcoin network says $405 million stolen in latest crypto hack | The S",
      "url": "https://www.straitstimes.com/business/bitcoin-network-says-405-million-stolen-in-latest-crypto-hack",
      "published_at": "2026-09-07T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-07T13:54:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}