Will Donald Trump cease to be President before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Trump out as President before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | $25K | $10.48M | C | 0x48b0b0…4722 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- Trump ceasing to be president before 2027 stays a long shot at 5% Polymarket 5%
- Polymarket prices the probability of Trump ceasing to be president before 2027 at 5%, a strong long-shot read despite mounting intra-party Iran war pressure.
- Republican pressure over the Iran war is notable, but the 5% price shows the market assigns negligible probability to that pressure translating into removal or resignation before year-end.
- The Kalshi contract on whether 2026 will be a bad year for Trump sits at 5% as well, while a separate Kalshi contract on a successful year also sits at just 3%, both near-null readings suggest the market sees the Iran war as an ongoing drag, not a decisive break either way.
- Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle based on Trump's official presidential status before January 1, 2027.
- Trump leaving presidency before 2027 remains a long shot Polymarket 6%
- Polymarket puts only 6% probability on Donald Trump ceasing to be president before 2027, resolving via UMA oracle.
- Republican pressure over the Iran war and midterm fears is a notable political stress signal, but the market is not pricing meaningful removal or resignation risk.
- The 6% price suggests markets view the Iran war backlash as an electoral problem for Republicans rather than an existential threat to the Trump presidency.
- Resolution via UMA oracle on any departure from office; the low probability holds regardless of the Iran conflict trajectory.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/trump-out-as-president-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/trump-out-as-president-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("trump-out-as-president-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZW6ZK09DB1",
"slug": "trump-out-as-president-before-2027",
"question": "Will Donald Trump cease to be President before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump",
"geopolitics",
"us-presidency",
"2026",
"political-transition"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10476929,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 46,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}