Trump leaving presidency before 2027 stays near zero at 5 percent

Name: Trump leaving presidency before 2027 stays near zero at 5 percent
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 5%

record: CMSIG2026092208 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-ZW6ZK09DB1 | published: 2026-09-22

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices the probability of Donald Trump ceasing to be president before 2027 at 5%.
Iran's reported strategy of escalating to inflict political pain on Trump has not moved the Polymarket contract meaningfully off its low base.
Sinking approval ratings on the economy and the Iran war, per the Reuters/Ipsos poll, add political pressure but are not translating into any serious market-priced removal risk.
Resolves via uma oracle; the pre-2027 horizon means the contract covers only the remaining months of 2026, keeping the window narrow.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Iran is reportedly escalating the conflict to drive up oil prices and increase political pain for President Donald Trump ahead of the 2026 midterms.exa_search → Brian Bennett · as_of 2026-09-22T13:03:08+00:00
publisher: Brian Bennett
published_at: 2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.ms.now/news/trump-iran-war-midterms-pain

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket at 5% on Trump leaving office before 2027 reflects market indifference to geopolitical pressure tactics despite a deteriorating approval backdrop.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/trump-out-as-president-before-2027/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x48b0b0bca515f68fccf95af4793dbd0edbfec1f8ec6e8df2c0f69ba74f8c4722

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-out-as-president-before-2027-polymarket-5-2026-09-22/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-out-as-president-before-2027-polymarket-5-2026-09-22.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("trump-out-as-president-before-2027-polymarket-5-2026-09-22")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092208",
  "published_at": "2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZW6ZK09DB1",
  "target_event_slug": "trump-out-as-president-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Donald Trump cease to be President before 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the probability of Donald Trump ceasing to be president before 2027 at 5%.",
    "Iran's reported strategy of escalating to inflict political pain on Trump has not moved the Polymarket contract meaningfully off its low base.",
    "Sinking approval ratings on the economy and the Iran war, per the Reuters/Ipsos poll, add political pressure but are not translating into any serious market-priced removal risk.",
    "Resolves via uma oracle; the pre-2027 horizon means the contract covers only the remaining months of 2026, keeping the window narrow."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Brian Bennett",
          "source_url": "https://www.ms.now/news/trump-iran-war-midterms-pain",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-22T13:03:08+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran is reportedly escalating the conflict to drive up oil prices and increase political pain for President Donald Trump ahead of the 2026 midterms.",
      "publisher": "Brian Bennett",
      "published_at": "2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.ms.now/news/trump-iran-war-midterms-pain"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 5% on Trump leaving office before 2027 reflects market indifference to geopolitical pressure tactics despite a deteriorating approval backdrop."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/trump-out-as-president-before-2027/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Brian Bennett: ‘Pain for Trump’: Iran is trying to escalate the war before the midter",
      "url": "https://www.ms.now/news/trump-iran-war-midterms-pain",
      "published_at": "2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-22T13:03:08+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026092208 published 2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-12ae1fbb0a7… ← underlying event all signals →