Will a Trump-Greenland deal be signed by December 31? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31 | 2027-01-01 | 100.0% | $510 | $89K | C | 0x6a7aed…99fa |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both Denmark and the United States sign a deal, treaty, or similar international agreement of any kind relating to Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any U.S.–Danish agreement relating to Greenland will qualify, regardless of subject matter, including but not limited to sovereignty, governance, security arrangements, or access to natural resources.
Examples of qualifying deals include but are not limited to a treaty that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession (even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement treaty establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission; or agreements permitting additional U.S. troop stationing, basing access, or resource extraction rights in Greenland.
This market will resolve to “Yes” only if a qualifying agreement is formally signed by authorized representatives of both Denmark and the United States. Official announcements, statements of intent, or declarations that an agreement has been reached will not suffice unless accompanied by signatures from both sides. Whether or not a qualifying deal is later passed by the respective parliaments or enters into force will not affect this market’s resolution. Signaling from Greenland’s population will not be considered.
Announcements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or understandings that are not formally signed by both parties will not qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction, control, basing rights, or access arrangements in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying agreements.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
official information from the governments of the United States and Denmark from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? | polymarket | 2026-09-22 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Trump-Greenland deal by December nears full pricing at 99 percent Polymarket 99%
- The Polymarket prediction market prices a Trump-Greenland deal signed by December 31 at 99%, essentially treating the outcome as resolved.
- Reuters reporting that the three parties are set to sign the deal is fully consistent with the near-certain Polymarket pricing, leaving almost no gap between news and market.
- The companion Polymarket contract on a US invasion of Greenland sits at just 3%, confirming the market views the diplomatic path as the overwhelmingly likely resolution.
- Resolves via Polymarket's uma_oracle resolution mechanism upon confirmation of a signed deal.
- Traders back a Greenland deal closing by Dec 31 96% · $96K 24h
- Polymarket prices a signed Trump-Greenland deal at 96%, near-certainty with under 100 days left in 2026.
- 24h volume of $96K is 28% of all-time handle, signaling a sharp fresh-capital commitment to the yes side.
- Surge likely reflects a concrete diplomatic development or leaked framework advancing toward a formal signing.
- Resolves YES on a signed agreement between the U.S. and Denmark/Greenland by December 31, 2026.
- Traders back a Greenland deal signed by Dec 31 at 96% 96% · $136K 24h
- 96% odds imply the market treats a signed deal by year-end as near-certain.
- $136K traded in 24h, 40% of all-time volume, marks a decisive capital commitment.
- Fresh attention likely driven by late-stage diplomatic signals or a reported timeline.
- Resolves Dec 31; any credible delay would be a sharp repricing event from this level.
- Greenland deal by Dec 31 stays a near-certainty 95% · $140K 24h
- Polymarket prices a signed Trump-Greenland deal by Dec 31 at 95%, near-full conviction.
- 24h volume of $140K is 58% of all-time handle, making this the dominant session on record.
- Surge implies fresh attention tracking an imminent diplomatic or legislative milestone.
- Resolves Dec 31, 2026; any credible denial or delay could reprice sharply from these levels.
- Traders back a Trump-Greenland deal closing by year-end 92% · $105K 24h
- Market prices 92% odds, near-certainty that a formal deal gets signed before January.
- 24h volume of $105K is 51% of all-time handle, signaling a concentrated late-stage conviction push.
- Fresh attention at this price level suggests participants expect an imminent announcement or framework leak.
- Resolves December 31, 2026; any diplomatic delay or congressional complication is the key tail risk.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/trump-x-greenland-deal-signed-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/trump-x-greenland-deal-signed-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("trump-x-greenland-deal-signed-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-M8SXSN1YS7",
"slug": "trump-x-greenland-deal-signed-by-december-31",
"question": "Will a Trump-Greenland deal be signed by December 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump",
"geopolitics",
"us-foreign-policy",
"greenland",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 89076,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the governments of the United States and Denmark",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}