Trump-Greenland deal by December nears full pricing at 99 percent

Name: Trump-Greenland deal by December nears full pricing at 99 percent
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 99%

record: CMSIG2026092204 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-M8SXSN1YS7 | published: 2026-09-22

4-bullet brief | narrative

The Polymarket prediction market prices a Trump-Greenland deal signed by December 31 at 99%, essentially treating the outcome as resolved.
Reuters reporting that the three parties are set to sign the deal is fully consistent with the near-certain Polymarket pricing, leaving almost no gap between news and market.
The companion Polymarket contract on a US invasion of Greenland sits at just 3%, confirming the market views the diplomatic path as the overwhelmingly likely resolution.
Resolves via Polymarket's uma_oracle resolution mechanism upon confirmation of a signed deal.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Reuters reports that the US, Denmark, and Greenland are set to sign an Arctic sovereignty deal, ending months of standoff.exa_search → Jacob Grønholt-Pedersen · as_of 2026-09-22T07:47:31+00:00
publisher: Jacob Grønholt-Pedersen
published_at: 2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-denmark-greenland-sign-deal-bid-end-arctic-standoff-2026-09-22/

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket at 99% had already priced this outcome; the Reuters signing report is the news catching up to a market that was near-fully committed well in advance.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/trump-x-greenland-deal-signed-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x6a7aed00fae37de19e0b789a6b50a7475ff1afa898c50b9da11ca733a23199fa

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-greenland-deal-by-dec-31-polymarket-99-2026-09-22/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/trump-greenland-deal-by-dec-31-polymarket-99-2026-09-22.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("trump-greenland-deal-by-dec-31-polymarket-99-2026-09-22")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092204",
  "published_at": "2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-M8SXSN1YS7",
  "target_event_slug": "trump-x-greenland-deal-signed-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will a Trump-Greenland deal be signed by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket prediction market prices a Trump-Greenland deal signed by December 31 at 99%, essentially treating the outcome as resolved.",
    "Reuters reporting that the three parties are set to sign the deal is fully consistent with the near-certain Polymarket pricing, leaving almost no gap between news and market.",
    "The companion Polymarket contract on a US invasion of Greenland sits at just 3%, confirming the market views the diplomatic path as the overwhelmingly likely resolution.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's uma_oracle resolution mechanism upon confirmation of a signed deal."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Jacob Grønholt-Pedersen",
          "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-denmark-greenland-sign-deal-bid-end-arctic-standoff-2026-09-22/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-22T07:47:31+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Reuters reports that the US, Denmark, and Greenland are set to sign an Arctic sovereignty deal, ending months of standoff.",
      "publisher": "Jacob Grønholt-Pedersen",
      "published_at": "2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-denmark-greenland-sign-deal-bid-end-arctic-standoff-2026-09-22/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 99% had already priced this outcome; the Reuters signing report is the news catching up to a market that was near-fully committed well in advance."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/trump-x-greenland-deal-signed-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Jacob Grønholt-Pedersen: Trump, Denmark, Greenland to sign deal in bid to end Arctic standoff |",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-denmark-greenland-sign-deal-bid-end-arctic-standoff-2026-09-22/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-22T07:47:31+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026092204 published 2026-09-22T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-514e9909f94… ← underlying event all signals →