Will the United States establish a national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 16.0% | — | $49K | C | 0x953b14…7aa2 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that the US government confiscating Bitcoin does not count as holding Bitcoin reserves.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from the US government from rules text · editorial
- the US federal reserve from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- National Bitcoin reserve by 2027 holds below 25 percent on Polymarket Polymarket 17%
- Polymarket prices a 17% chance the United States establishes a national Bitcoin reserve before 2027.
- A $288 million government Bitcoin transfer to Coinbase spotlights uncertainty around reserve rules, but Polymarket at 17% shows the market still treats formal reserve establishment as unlikely before 2027.
- A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-JQRXSG4ZX9) prices a Trump-created National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026 at 19%, consistent with the Polymarket read across venues.
- Resolution via Polymarket UMA oracle based on an official U.S. government announcement of a formal national Bitcoin reserve structure.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/us-national-bitcoin-reserve-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/us-national-bitcoin-reserve-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("us-national-bitcoin-reserve-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0F2G0B8X49",
"slug": "us-national-bitcoin-reserve-before-2027",
"question": "Will the United States establish a national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"bitcoin",
"us-policy",
"crypto-regulation",
"government-reserves",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 49209,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 54,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the US government",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "the US federal reserve",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}