National Bitcoin reserve by 2027 holds below 25 percent on Polymarket

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072508",
  "published_at": "2026-07-25T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-0F2G0B8X49",
  "target_event_slug": "us-national-bitcoin-reserve-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will the United States establish a national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a 17% chance the United States establishes a national Bitcoin reserve before 2027.",
    "A $288 million government Bitcoin transfer to Coinbase spotlights uncertainty around reserve rules, but Polymarket at 17% shows the market still treats formal reserve establishment as unlikely before 2027.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-JQRXSG4ZX9) prices a Trump-created National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026 at 19%, consistent with the Polymarket read across venues.",
    "Resolution via Polymarket UMA oracle based on an official U.S. government announcement of a formal national Bitcoin reserve structure."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "bitrss.com",
          "source_url": "https://bitrss.com/us-government-sends-288m-to-coinbase-putting-bitcoin-reserve-rules-into-question-232030",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-25T09:42:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The U.S. government transferred $288 million to Coinbase, raising questions about compliance with Bitcoin strategic reserve executive order rules.",
      "publisher": "bitrss.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-25T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://bitrss.com/us-government-sends-288m-to-coinbase-putting-bitcoin-reserve-rules-into-question-232030"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 17% and Kalshi at 19% show cross-venue agreement that a formal U.S. Bitcoin reserve remains a minority-probability outcome before 2027."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/us-national-bitcoin-reserve-before-2027/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "bitrss.com: US government sends $288M to Coinbase putting Bitcoin reserve rules in",
      "url": "https://bitrss.com/us-government-sends-288m-to-coinbase-putting-bitcoin-reserve-rules-into-question-232030",
      "published_at": "2026-07-25T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-25T09:42:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}