Will the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate be at a specific level at the end of 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-09 (156D) ]

polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot

polymarket 15 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
≤ 1%	2026-12-09	0.6%	$71	$219K	A	`0x857a2a…20e9`
1.25%	2026-12-09	0.6%	$49	$136K	A	`0x7a4ddd…d1a0`
1.5%	2026-12-09	0.5%	—	$140K	A	`0xb81fde…7b09`
1.75%	2026-12-09	0.7%	$292	$138K	A	`0x98283d…f2d6`
2%	2026-12-09	0.6%	$462	$253K	A	`0x75ad78…af25`
2.25%	2026-12-09	0.5%	$45	$76K	A	`0xcefba5…5222`
2.5%	2026-12-09	0.8%	$1.6K	$166K	A	`0xed67f6…daea`
2.75%	2026-12-09	0.9%	$686	$48K	A	`0x0fe6bc…fb32`
3%	2026-12-09	3.4%	$1.5K	$463K	A	`0xf9ca1f…425f`
3.25%	2026-12-09	2.0%	$1.5K	$55K	A	`0xaf3a3a…4260`
3.5%	2026-12-09	8.0%	$22	$196K	A	`0xfdf784…2312`
3.75%	2026-12-09	30.9%	$40	$522K	A	`0xf88da0…3165`
4%	2026-12-09	32.1%	$4	$1.36M	A	`0xb6abfb…0fd3`
4.25%	2026-12-09	19.1%	$11	$418K	A	`0x16dd5e…93a4`
≥ 4.5%	2026-12-09	4.7%	—	$2.40M	A	`0x3d20f2…78d7`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	not provided	link	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 15 markets · share this text

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).

platform source field polymarket.description → https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

sources (3) · single authority

federalreserve.gov venue-listed
Federal Reserve source of record from rules text · editorial
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm from rules text · editorial

recent wire items

2026-06-04T11:16:22+00:00 vs-benchmark-drift
Fed funds at 4.5 percent end-2026 lags far below FRED rate 3% · Fed funds target rate, upper bound (FRED) 3.75%
- Polymarket prices only 3% chance upper bound ends 2026 at or above 4.5%.
- FRED benchmark: Fed funds upper bound currently at 3.75%.
- Market implies near-zero probability of any hike from current level, with the rate 75 bps below threshold.
- Resolves end-2026 against FRED Fed funds upper bound.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-WB85BV4T72",
  "slug": "what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026",
  "question": "Will the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate be at a specific level at the end of 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "fed-rates",
    "economic-policy",
    "federal-funds-rate",
    "interest-rates",
    "us-economy"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 15,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 6592543,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 93,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "federalreserve.gov",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Federal Reserve",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →