Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-09 (189D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 15 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1% | 2026-12-09 | 0.3% | $57 | $217K | A | 0x857a2a…20e9 | ||
| 1.25% | 2026-12-09 | 0.3% | $274 | $136K | A | 0x7a4ddd…d1a0 | ||
| 1.5% | 2026-12-09 | 0.4% | $704 | $140K | A | 0xb81fde…7b09 | ||
| 1.75% | 2026-12-09 | 0.5% | $394 | $137K | A | 0x98283d…f2d6 | ||
| 2% | 2026-12-09 | 0.5% | $423 | $252K | A | 0x75ad78…af25 | ||
| 2.25% | 2026-12-09 | 0.6% | — | $73K | A | 0xcefba5…5222 | ||
| 2.5% | 2026-12-09 | 0.3% | $295 | $162K | A | 0xed67f6…daea | ||
| 2.75% | 2026-12-09 | 0.8% | — | $47K | A | 0x0fe6bc…fb32 | ||
| 3% | 2026-12-09 | 4.0% | — | $456K | A | 0xf9ca1f…425f | ||
| 3.25% | 2026-12-09 | 5.0% | — | $53K | A | 0xaf3a3a…4260 | ||
| 3.5% | 2026-12-09 | 14.8% | $252 | $194K | A | 0xfdf784…2312 | ||
| 3.75% | 2026-12-09 | 37.7% | $465 | $521K | A | 0xf88da0…3165 | ||
| 4% | 2026-12-09 | 23.0% | — | $1.36M | A | 0xb6abfb…0fd3 | ||
| 4.25% | 2026-12-09 | 6.5% | — | $416K | A | 0x16dd5e…93a4 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-12-09 | 2.9% | $35 | $2.40M | A | 0x3d20f2…78d7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | Fomc | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm recent wire items
- Fed upper bound ≥4.5% by end-2026: 4%; rate at 3.75%
- Polymarket prices only 4% chance the upper bound ends 2026 at ≥4.5%.
- Fed funds upper bound (FRED) currently sits at 3.75%.
- Market implies near-zero probability of a 75bps+ net hike from current level by year-end.
- Resolves on FRED Fed funds upper bound reading at end of 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-WB85BV4T72",
"slug": "what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026",
"question": "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-rates",
"economic-policy",
"federal-funds-rate",
"interest-rates",
"us-economy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 15,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6561822,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Fomc",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}