Fed upper bound ≥4.5% by end-2026: 4%; rate at 3.75%

Name: Fed upper bound ≥4.5% by end-2026: 4%; rate at 3.75%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-03T01:45:00+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

record: CMSIG20260603BD10 | category: vs-benchmark-drift | target: CM-EVT-WB85BV4T72 | published: 2026-06-03

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices only 4% chance the upper bound ends 2026 at ≥4.5%.
Fed funds upper bound (FRED) currently sits at 3.75%.
Market implies near-zero probability of a 75bps+ net hike from current level by year-end.
Resolves on FRED Fed funds upper bound reading at end of 2026.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] benchmark_divergence

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.78 / 1.00
prompt_template: benchmark_drift_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x3d20f26deb9b9cc7e24e5e06c10234a722d93bac095ce1105c59b44b503078d7

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset` + `ClaimReview`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-federal-vs-bench/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-federal-vs-bench.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-the-upper-bound-of-the-target-federal-vs-bench")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260603BD10",
  "published_at": "2026-06-03T01:45:00+00:00",
  "detection": "benchmark_drift",
  "category_tag": "VS_BENCHMARK_DRIFT",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-WB85BV4T72",
  "target_event_slug": "what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 4% chance the upper bound ends 2026 at ≥4.5%.",
    "Fed funds upper bound (FRED) currently sits at 3.75%.",
    "Market implies near-zero probability of a 75bps+ net hike from current level by year-end.",
    "Resolves on FRED Fed funds upper bound reading at end of 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "benchmark_divergence",
      "provenance": "PM price direct from polymarket API; benchmark Fed funds target rate, upper bound (FRED) = 3.75%",
      "field_provenance": {
        "pm_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "benchmark_value": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "Fed funds target rate, upper bound (FRED)",
          "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:45:00+00:00"
        }
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.78,
    "prompt_template": "benchmark_drift_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Fed funds target rate, upper bound (FRED): 3.75%",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:45:00+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "benchmark_api",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260603BD10 published 2026-06-03T01:45:00+00:00 signature sha256-ca85830e355… ← underlying event all signals →